ICC World Test Championship 2023-25: Qualification scenario of all teams

Five teams are in the running for ICC World Test Championship 2023-25 finals.

The ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 has reached an exciting stage with multiple teams like India, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa vying for the spots in the final. The summit clash of the ICC WTC 2023-25 will be played at the Lord’s in June next year.

While India and South Africa have made progress towards the top, New Zealand’s eight-wicket setback to England in Christchurch has harmed their hopes.

India are at No.1 position in the ICC WTC 2023-25 table, and now have PCT of 61.11 from 15 tests, with nine wins and five losses. On the second spot are South Africa with PCT of 59.26 from five wins from nine tests. The third spot belongs to Australia, who have eight wins and four losses from 13 tests and have PCT of 57.69.

Here is a look at the qualification scenario of all teams for the ICC World Test Championship 2023-25 final:

India: Remaining matches: 4 tests vs Australia (away) | Maximum attainable PCT: 69.29%

India’s emphatic victory in the Perth test helped them reclaim the top spot in the ICC WTC 2023-25 standings, improving their prospects of making the finals.

To qualify regardless of other results, they must win the Border Gavaskar Trophy by 5-0, 4-0, 4-1, or 3-0. If they win 3-0 against Australia, their PCT will be 62.28, which is only bettered by South Africa at this stage.

India may still make the final even if they lose the series to Australia, but they will need several other results to go their way. If they lose 3-2, their PCT will be 53.51 and In this case, Australia will be primed for a top finish.

India will then need other results to go their way, as follows:

– NZ vs ENG ends in 1-1 draw; NZ finish at 52.38

– Both SA vs SL and SA vs PAK end at 1-1; SA finishes at 52.77

– SL vs AUS ends in a 0-0 draw, SL finish at 51.28

If the first two scenarios occur and Sri Lanka draw 1-1 against Australia, their PCT will rise to 53.84, slightly higher than India’s 53.51 if they lose 3-2 against Australia. In this instance, even a one-point deduction for Sri Lanka in the event of a slow over-rate would enable India to edge ahead.

Australia: Remaining matches- 4 tests vs India (home); 2 tests vs Sri Lanka (away) | Maximum attainable PCT: 71.05%

Despite the defeat in Perth, Australia are largely in control of their fate. Five victories (65.79) or four wins and a tie (62.28) would secure a top-two finish, as only South Africa can better their PCT.

If India win the Border Gavaskar Trophy 3-2, Australia may still finish ahead of the two-time finalists with PCT of 60.53 if they sweep Sri Lanka 2-0. In this instance, only South Africa can finish ahead of them.

South Africa: Remaining matches: 1 test vs Sri Lanka (home); 2 tests vs Pakistan (home) | Maximum attainable PCT: 69.44%

South Africa are currently favorites to confirm their spot in the final of ICC WTC 2023-2025, thanks to four consecutive wins in the ongoing cycle and three home games to follow.

Two victories and a tie will bring them to 63.89, which can only be surpassed by either India or Australia. In the event of two victories and a defeat, South Africa will need Sri Lanka to drop points (a loss or a tie), India to win no more than three tests, and Australia to win no more than four.

A win and two draws would push them to 58.88, but they will need other outcomes to go their way. However, draws have been increasingly unusual in recent years, with only three in 52 tests in the current cycle, all plagued by rain.

Sri Lanka: Remaining matches: 1 test vs South Africa (away); 2 tests vs Australia (home) | Maximum attainable PCT: 61.53%

Following the defeat in Durban, Sri Lanka’s best chance is to win each of their remaining three tests and increase their PCT to 61.53, allowing them to qualify automatically. Two wins and a draw will get them to 56.41, leaving them in a precarious position, as they will then require a combination of several other outcomes to go their way.

New Zealand: Remaining matches: 2 tests vs England (home) | Maximum attainable PCT: 57.14%

New Zealand’s eight-wicket defeat to England has done nothing to help their campaign, and even a win in the next two tests, which would get them to 57.14, may not be enough, as they will then have to rely on several other results.

A possible set of scenarios for the Blackcaps, if they finish at 57.14, can be:

– South Africa lose at least two of their remaining three tests (even a 1-1-1 win-loss-draw outcome would do), and

– One of India and Australia qualify for the top spot; assume Australia win the Border Gavaskar Trophy 3-2 to limit India to 53.50, or India beat Australia 3-2 and Australia draw 1-1 against Sri Lanka. In the latter case, India will finish at 64.03 and Australia at 55.26, thus making for a rematch of the inaugural edition final.

*The calculations assume that the teams do not lose points due to slow over-rate, which could be critical in the final standings.

(All stats and numbers as on 1st December, 2024, after completion of first test of New Zealand vs England)

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