Does Pep Guardiola overthink in crucial games?

The Spaniard is among the top manager in Europe but has always come under scrutiny for overthinking in big games

Pep Guardiola and Manchester City are attempting to win their sole second Champions League semi-final together after many years of futility.

Given how successful Guardiola has been as a manager—he has won 33 trophies in his 16-year tenure—it sounds absurd, yet two of his three Champions League semi-final victories were formerly separated by a decade.

Pep Guardiola last won a semifinal in 2011 when he guided Barcelona past Real Madrid en route to winning the championship; it would require him precisely 10 years after leading Man City through PSG in 2021 for him to repeat that achievement.

City exited the Champions League semifinals to Real Madrid last season as they were destined to advance but for Rodrygo's late heroics at the Santiago Bernabeu. During Pep Guardiola's first four years at the Etihad, City struggled to go past the quarterfinals — even dropping out of the last 16 in his debut season — and exited the competition to Real Madrid.

It's a trend that also followed Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich, where he made it to three semi-finals but never even once to the final two.

Does Pep Guardiola actually tend to 'overthink' them, then? Let's review his losses in the past.

2010: Barcelona vs. Inter

The perfect Diego Milito contributed to all three of the goals that would shortly be scored in Lombardy. He first set up Wesley Sneijder to restore parity on the half-hour mark, then he teed up Maicon and then scored one himself. Although it was a Milito masterclass, Pep Guardiola's performance might have been called into question.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic was replaced by Eric Abidal in the 62nd minute, and players like Thierry Henry, Bojan Krkic, and Yaya Toure were left on the bench. Gerard Pique also briefly moved to a target man in a last-ditch effort. Due to a delayed response, Inter were able to hold onto their cushion and enter the Camp Nou with a two-goal advantage.

2014: Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid

The formation was completely ineffective; Bayern were completely outmatched by the Real Madrid counterattack and lost 0-4. "Man, I made a mistake. I made a complete error. Regarding his strategy for that game, Guardiola said, "It's a monumental f***-up.

Now, one might perhaps see why Pep Guardiola failed to prepare properly because his dear friend and former Barcelona assistant, Tito Vilanova, passed suddenly following a fight with throat cancer between the two legs of the semi-final. Even yet, he undoubtedly overthought the situation and ruined his side's prospects of success.

2020: Chelsea 1-0 Manchester City

A minimum of one of Rodri or Fernandinho played in holding midfield in 59 of City's 60 games across all competitions in the 2020-21 season. It seems improbable that the tactical blueprint for Saturday's dull 1-0 final loss to Chelsea came from a 3-0 Champions League group-stage victory against Olympiacos.

However, it was there in stark contrast. Ilkay Gundogan, the leading scorer for City, would begin at the base of the midfield, with a wealth of attacking skill to carry out his instructions further up the pitch. Although it was a daring move, it did nothing to stop the threat coming from the opposite direction and robbed the Premier League champions of their rhythm, and resulted in a Champions League final loss.