Why Graham Potter would be a perfect fit at Tottenham Hotspur

The English manager has been impressive at Brighton and Hove Albion over the past two seasons.

Tottenham Hotspur have been struggling off late, and are in the market looking for a new manager after sacking Jose Mourinho. Big guns like Brendan Rodgers, Eric Ten Haag and Julian Nagelsmann seem to be off the table. Even Maurizio Sarri and Massimilano Allegri seem to be going to other clubs in Napoli and Real Madrid respectively. But Spurs need to look no further than Brighton and Hove Albion manager Graham Potter.

Graham Potter's rise to the Premier League was different. The English coach put the world on notice not while he was in England but while he was the head coach at Sweden's Ostersunds FK. He vaulted the minnows into relevance from the third tier of Swedish football to the Allsvenskan and the Europa League knockout stages as well as the Svenksa Cupen title.

He then moved to the EFL championship to take the reins of newly relegated Swansea City. For the 2019/20 season, Brighton decided to replace Chris Hughton as the head coach. Hughton had Brighton placed 17th, barely escaping relegation by 2 points. And thus, in came Potter who joined the Seagulls after just one year at Swansea.

Under Potter, Brighton played ambitious football. Their whole modus operandi changed from a primarily counter attacking side to a well-drilled unflinching side.

Brighton's improved quality

The Seagulls' average possession in Chris Hughton's last season (2018/19) was 42%. Under Graham Potter, it rose to 52% (2019/20) and 51% ( so far this season). The number of passes per game also rose by more than 100 .

The 2018/19 saw Brighton play 371 passes per game with 75% accuracy. It improved to 479 passes per game with 81% accuracy in the first season under Potter and stabilized at 475 passes per game with the same accuracy this season.

Although quality-wise, there has been significant uptick, Brighton’s results still remain relatively the same. They had a 15th placed finish in the 2019-20 season and currently sit safe in the 17th position with two games to go, one point behind Burnley and Newcastle in 15th and 16th respectively.

Possession is a stat which people tend to associate with victory or points. However, that does not need to be the case always, especially in Potter’s case. Brighton averages more possession than both Burnley (42%) and Newcastle(38%). They even hold the ball more than West Ham(43%), currently occupying the 7th place in the standings.

It is the manager’s job to make sure that the time that the ball held on to doesn’t just tick the box for quantity but quality as well. And Brighton under Graham Potter don’t seem to be doing that based on standings alone. But a closer look says otherwise.

Lack of chance conversion by strikers

Expected Goals(xG) is a statistic that determines the quality of any chance created by a team. Let's say that a chance is given a 0.3 value as its xG. That means there was a 30% chance that the striker should have converted the chance into a goal. This statistic helps in measuring the real impact of the gameplay or tactic and how effective the strategy is.

Brighton’s expected goals(or xG) for this season is 52.40, i.e. they were expected to score 52.40 goals with the chances they got this season. However, they have only scored a mediocre 37 goals so far this season. The 15.40 differential between the goals and xG is highest in the league. This means that there is a surplus of chances for the offense, but they have been unable to capitalize on the same.

These expected goals also give them expected points(xPts) value of 59.27 compared to the 38 points they currently have. The 21.27 differential is also highest in the league, with the next nearest value being Fulham’s (13.30).

 Brighton’s xPts rank in the league is 5th. That is, if all teams were expected to capitalize on their chances based on the xG value, Brighton would have been 5th on the table. That means instead of fighting to avoid relegation, the Seagulls could have been challenging for a Champions League spot. We can give a bit of leeway to the footballing aspect of it. However, a jump from 17th to 5th demonstrates Brighton’s improved but uncharted resurgence.

This also holds true for Potter’s first season when Brighton had an xG of 47.42 with a 4th highest differential in the league and xPts of 48.02 which was good for 3rd highest in the league. The xPts ranking places them 13th on the table, 2 places above where they finished.

On the other hand, Chris Hughton’s final year was appalling. The xG was 37.03, which was good for 7th highest in the league. The xPts(36.19), meanwhile, placed them in the relegation zone at 18th.

It is easy to derive what this data indicates. Brighton’s gameplay allows plenty of chances to be created, However, the Seagulls’ attackers have been very wasteful in front of goal. Therefore, their dominance on the pitch fails to get validated with points.

Neal Maupay seems to be the waster-in-chief for the English manager. The former Brentford striker had an xG of 27.33 during his two seasons. However, his current tally of 18 goals is 9.33 less than his xG tally.

Tottenham's lack of chances

Now onto Tottenham Hotspur. The lily whites have had a topsy-turvy two years but one thing has remain constant during these two years. In fact, since 2014, Spurs have been scoring more goals in the league than what has been expected of them based on the chances they have created.

The current season of Tottenham Hotspur has their xG at 53.93 which is way lesser than the 61 goals they scored. That is the second lowest value in the league. Their xPts value (51.87) places them 10th in the league  with the fourth lowest differential.

The 2019-20 season also had similar numbers for Tottenham Hotspur with xG being 49.02, the 11.98 differential being the lowest in the league while the xPts(49.26) placed them 12th in the league and also with 3rd lowest differential.

The data here indicates one clear thing. Tottenham Hotspur strikers and goal-scorers have been exceptional at seizing the opportunities present in front of them. The likes of Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son and Gareth Bale have shown their elite instincts while playing and that has been rewarding for Spurs throughout the seasons.

Teams placed higher in the table score more goals than expected, because they tend to have better players. Of the current top 10, only three teams have scored lesser goals than xG. At the same time, the bottom 10 has six teams that fit the category. Even then Brighton’s differential of 15.40 is substantial.

If the difference was below 8, it could have been attributed to a bad working culture or bad form. However, evidence over the course of two seasons points to a stellar job that Graham Potter has been performing during the course of his two seasons in the Premier League.

If his brilliant mind is combined with the rampant attack of Tottenham Hotspur, the resulting end-product will be a legitimate nightmare for teams to go up against. Potter’s familiarity with the Premier League would also offer a good case for his consideration.

Keeping in mind that the last time Spurs poached a manager from a lower-tier PL side, they ended up having a few solid seasons including a Champions League final appearance. If Tottenham Hotspur manage to back Graham Potter by making relevant signings, their hunt for silverware might end sooner than expected.

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