How can India qualify for the AFC U23 Asian Cup? Check all possible scenarios

India are in second place in Group H with three points.

The Indian U23 team lost against Qatar on Saturday in the AFC U23 Asian Cup qualifiers, putting their chances of qualifying in jeopardy. However, India are still in contention to secure their place in the AFC U23 Asian Cup. To confirm their qualification, the Blue Colts will have to finish among the top four second-placed teams in the qualifiers.

After an excruciating defeat against Qatar, India have three points in two games. They are in the second place, marginally ahead of Bahrain, due to the head-to-head record. Among the eleven second-placed teams, India are in tenth place.

The #BlueColts remain in second spot in Group H ↔️9 Sep: 🇮🇳🆚🇧🇳The final push for a place in #AFCU23!#IndianFootball ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/kOoGXiPgek

— Indian Football Team (@IndianFootball) September 7, 2025

India will be aiming to win the match against Brunei by a huge margin to improve their goal difference, if it comes down to that. Just a win in the next match would not confirm India’s qualification, as the results in other groups will also matter. In this article, we will look at the possible scenarios that might work in favour of India.

Also Read: India U23 vs Qatar U23: India’s brilliance, Suhail again on target, appalling refereeing, and other talking points

Favourable scenarios in India’s group

The priority for the Indian team should be to win their next match against Brunei, possibly by a huge margi,n to keep their qualifying hopes alive. According to AFC regulations, group standings are first decided by points. If two or more teams are level, head-to-head results come into play, starting with points in direct clashes, followed by goal difference, and then goals scored. If still tied, the criteria move to overall group results, including total goal difference and goals scored across all matches.

Scenario 1: Bahrain beat Qatar by one goal

This is India’s best-case scenario. If Bahrain defeat Qatar by exactly one goal, all three sides—India, Bahrain, and Qatar—will finish level on six points. The head-to-head mini-table will then come into play.

In that case, each team would have three points, but India hold an advantage in goals scored in these direct matches. India would have three goals compared to Bahrain and Qatar’s two. This narrow edge would push India to the top of the group, giving them a direct ticket to the Asian Cup.

Even India’s goal difference in the same would be higher. The Blue Colts will have a GD of +1, with Qatar having 0, and Bahrain having a goal difference of -1.

🚨 What is best case scenario for India U-23 to qualify for AFC U-23 Asian Cup 2026? #IndianFootball @KhelNow Why best 2nd place is not an option•Only 4 best runners-up qualify.•Already 4 groups have 6-point runners-up •So India’s best chance = win the group.⚽️ If…

— Ashish Negi (@7negiashish) September 7, 2025

Scenario 2: Bahrain win by a larger margin

If Bahrain defeat Qatar by more than one goal, the balance shifts. Bahrain’s superior goal difference in the mini-table would make them group toppers. India would then settle for second place, which pushes their hopes onto the “best runners-up” slot.

However, that path is almost closed, as four other groups already have runners-up with six points, leaving India at a clear disadvantage.

Scenario 3: Qatar beat Bahrain

If Qatar win, they would move to the top with six points. India would then finish second, as they defeated Bahrain earlier.

Again, this would mean relying on the best second-placed rankings, where India currently sit tenth out of eleven groups—a position unlikely to secure qualification.

India’s chances of qualifying for AFC U23 Asian Cup if they finish second in Group H

If neither of the above scenarios works in India’s favour, they can still try to finish as one of the best second-placed teams. To stand a mathematical chance, India must defeat Brunei by a massive margin, ideally 15 goals or more, to improve their overall goal difference and goals scored tally.

But even with such a heavy win, qualification depends on unfavourable results for other second-placed teams such as China, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Yemen.

Scenarios in other groups that will work in India’s favour

Group A

In Group A, Jordan and Turkmenistan are at the top. These two teams will play against each other in the next match. The best result for India will be a crushing defeat for Turkmenistan, which will restrict them to 6 points and a poorer goal difference than India.

India can not afford a draw in this match, as it will take the points tally to 7 for both teams. India can not accumulate more than 6 points, with only a match left.

Group B

The permutations and combinations in this group are the most favourable for India. Japan and Kuwait, the top two teams in this group, will clash against each other next. Japan have 6 points, whereas Kuwait have 4 points in their bag. A win for Japan would take them to nine points, restricting Kuwait to four points.

A Kuwait win will stop Japan from extending their points tally. They will be tied with India, given India win their match against Brunei, but their goal difference would allow India to progress. A draw, which will result in Kuwait finishing with just four points, would also work for the Blue Colts

Group C

Vietnam and Yemen, with 6 points each, are at the top in this group. They will play each other on September 9. A draw between them is the worst result for India. It will take their points to 7. A decisive result will not allow one of the two teams to go beyond 6 points. With a superior goal difference, India can qualify.

Group D

A similar scenario in Group D as well. Australia and China, the top two teams, will square off in the last match. Both have 6 points on the table. A draw would not favour India. A decisive result is required to boost India’s chances. However, a loss for China is more suited to India’s chances because China have a positive goal difference of 11 compared to Australia’s 20.

It will be easier for India to edge China on the goal difference than to dwarf Australia. In any scenario, India will have to score a minimum of 8-9 goals to have a superior goal difference than these two teams.

Group E

The group toppers, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, have a relatively easier fixture in the last match, against Palestine and Sri Lanka, respectively. A win for both sides would not help India, as it would take their tally to 7 points. However, if one of these teams draws their fixture, it would restrict them to five points, giving India an edge.

The Indian fans must pray for Palestine to turn up strongly and scrape a draw against Uzbekistan because expecting Sri Lanka to draw with Kyrgyzstan is asking too much of the South Asian nation.

Group F

In this group, any one of Thailand or Lebanon should lose or draw against Mongolia and Malaysia. Both winning their games would extend their points to tally to 7, which India cannot surpass.

Group G

Iraq, with 6 points, and Cambodia, with 4 points, are at the top in Group G. They will play their next match against each other. A win for Iraq or a draw will work the best for India, or else Cambodia should beat Iraq by a minimum of four to five goals.

Group I

This is arguably the least favourable group for India. UAE and Iran, with 6 points each, are at the top. The next match will involve these two sides. India should pray for a decisive result in the match by a huge margin, which is unlikely. A draw would not help India.

Group J

South Korea, with 6 points, are at the top. Indonesia are in second place with 4 points in their bag. These two will lock horns in the next match. A win for South Korea, which is likely, or a draw will see India having an edge. If Indonesia beat South Korea, they should do that by a five to six-goal margin.

Group K

In Group K, Syria are at the top. They have 6 points in their account. The second and third places are occupied by Philippines and Tajikistan, respectively, with 3 points each. Philippines will play against Nepal in the last match. They should not beat Nepal by a goal margin in excess of seven or eight, or else they will have a superior goal difference than India.

Tajikistan will face Syria, which is expected to be a close affair. Any result in this match would be in favour, given the result is not heavily skewed.

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