ISL 2025-26: Title scenario explained as Indian Super League enters final stretch

Mohun Bagan SG are the current table toppers of ISL 2025-26

The Indian Super League (ISL) 2025-26 enters its final stretch with the conclusion of Matchweek 9. With only 4 more matchweeks to go, the title race is getting very tight. This season due to the shorter format, the league phase has changed, there will be no playoffs this time.

The table toppers at the end of the 13th Matchweek will lift the ISL title and further qualify to play in Asia at the continental stage representing India. So, the importance of every match is very important.

As the league approaches its deciding phase, there are almost 5 to 6 teams who are very much in contention for the ISL glory. Let us take a look at the scenarios for the ISL 2025-26 title race.

The Favourites

Mohun Bagan SG

Mohun Bagan Super Giant are currently sitting comfortably at the top of the ISL points table with 20 points from 9 matches, having won 6, drawn 2, and lost just once. Their performance so far has given them a comfortable cushion over the other teams.

At this stage, the only teams that could realistically challenge them are Mumbai City FC and East Bengal FC and even then, it would require a significant drop in Mohun Bagan SG’s form, something that hasn’t looked likely this season.

If Mohun Bagan SG go on to win all their remaining matches, they would finish on 32 points. Even with a slip-up or two, they are still expected to end the campaign around the 29–30 points mark, which should be more than enough to keep them in control of the title race.

There is, however, an interesting situation. Due to their AFC competition ban, even if they win the league, the second-placed team will earn the continental qualification spot. This makes the battle behind them just as intriguing.

One match that could play a defining role is the iconic Kolkata Derby against East Bengal FC. The “Boro Match” could prove decisive not just for pride, but potentially in confirming Mohun Bagan SG’s title triumph.

All things considered, Mohun Bagan SG look like clear favourites at this point, with well over a 90% chance of reclaiming the ISL title if they maintain their current form.

East Bengal FC

Many might question why East Bengal FC are being considered among the favourites for the title as they are currently mid table. The answer lies in a small but an important detail, they still have a game in hand compared to the other top table teams.

Currently placed 4th with 15 points from 8 matches, East Bengal have won 4, drawn 3, and lost just once so far. That extra match in hand could prove crucial in shaping their title hope.

If they manage to win all of their remaining five matches, they would add 15 more points to their tally and finish the season on 30 points. If this happens it would likely mean that this includes a victory over Mohun Bagan Super Giant, which would directly impact the ISL points table.

In that case, Mohun Bagan SG could be restricted to around 29 points, handing East Bengal the title by the smallest of margins.

It’s a storyline that would be nothing short of unforgettable, a potential title decided in the Kolkata Derby, with East Bengal completing a remarkable late push to the top. These two sides are among the few who still have their fate firmly in their own hands.

With that being said, the road ahead is not so easy. East Bengal still have to face strong opponents like Mumbai City FC, Punjab FC and Mohun Bagan SG. Going through these matches without dropping points will be a real challenge.

All things considered, East Bengal have a genuine shot at the title but given the difficulty of their remaining matches, their chances can be placed at around 65–70%.

Mumbai City FC

Mumbai City FC have had to go through a challenging season, especially after an off-season problem that saw the City Football Group step away from ownership due to the uncertainty involving ISL, along with several key foreign player departures. Given these circumstances, their campaign so far has been impressive.

Led by head coach Petr Kratky, the Islanders currently sit 2nd in the table with 18 points from 9 matches, having won 5, drawn 3, and lost just once. They are only two points behind Mohun Bagan Super Giant, and at one stage, they were even leading the standings.

However, a slight drop in recent performances has seen them fall just behind in the race.

Looking forward, even if Mumbai City win all of their remaining four matches, they would finish on 30 points. While that keeps them surely in contention, but their title hopes are not entirely in their own hands as they would still need other teams to take points off Mohun Bagan SG.

Adding to the challenge, Mumbai City still have some difficult fixtures to navigate, including clashes against East Bengal FC and Bengaluru FC. Winning all of their remaining games will not be so straightforward.

All things considered, Mumbai City FC remain strong contenders, but compared to the likes of Mohun Bagan SG and East Bengal, their path to the title is slightly more complicated and dependent on results elsewhere. So, it’s a 50-50 chance in their case

Still in contention

FC Goa

FC Goa are currently placed 3rd in the ISL points table with 16 points from 9 matches. The Gaurs have shown consistency throughout the campaign, keeping themselves within touching distance of the top.

With four matches still to play, even a perfect run would take them to a maximum of 28 points. While that keeps them mathematically in the title race, it may not be enough to guarantee the top spot.

As a result, FC Goa’s chances are not entirely in their own hands. They will need favourable results from other fixtures particularly involving the teams above them to stay in contention.

While the possibility of a title push remains alive, it is a difficult path for the Gaurs. Their chances can be placed at around 50%, given their reliance on other results and a near-perfect finish to the season.

Bengaluru FC

Bengaluru FC find themselves in a situation quite similar to FC Goa. They are currently on 15 points from 9 matches, keeping them within reach of the top but with little margin for error.

With four games remaining, the maximum they can achieve is 27 points. While that technically keeps them in the title race, it puts them at a disadvantage compared to the teams above them.

Much like others, Bengaluru FC are heavily dependent on results elsewhere going in their favour, in addition to winning all of their remaining matches something that is easier said than done.

Their path to the title looks challenging, and their chances can be estimated at around 40–50%, given the circumstances.

Jamshedpur FC

Jamshedpur FC are in a position very similar to FC Goa and Bengaluru FC in the title race. They currently have 15 points from 9 matches, which keeps them in contention but leaves very little room for slip-ups.

With four matches remaining, the maximum they can reach is 27 points. While that still keeps them mathematically alive, it makes their title hopes extremely difficult.

Like the other teams in this bracket, Jamshedpur FC will need to win all of their remaining games and also rely heavily on results elsewhere going in their favour especially involving the teams above them.

It’s a very tough path from here, and their chances of lifting the title look slim, likely around the 35–40% mark given their dependence on multiple factors.

Almost no chance

For Punjab FC, Inter Kashi, Chennaiyin FC, SC Delhi, Kerala Blasters FC, NorthEast United FC, Odisha FC and Mohammedan SC, the title race is realistically out of reach at this stage.

In the case of Punjab FC, they still have a game in hand and can get higher on the table maybe even the top 4 but the title hopes look tough

While these teams can still aim to finish higher up the table and build some momentum towards the end of the season, their chances of winning the ISL title are virtually nonexistent.

A combination of points gap, limited games remaining, and dependence on multiple unlikely results going their way makes it an almost impossible scenario.

All things considered, their title hopes are close to zero, and their focus will likely shift towards improving their final standings rather than competing for the top spot.

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