Pep Guardiola reveals Man City's chances of winning UCL second-leg vs Real Madrid

City will travel to Bernabeu for the second-leg match.

Before Wednesday night’s second-leg play-off match against Real Madrid, Manchester City coach Pep Guardiola stated that his team has a “1%” chance of making it to the Champions League round of 16.

Everything could have turned out very differently. With less than ten minutes of the first leg left at the Etihad Stadium last Tuesday, the defending Premier League winners led 2-1 over Madrid before two late goals drastically changed the outcome of the match.

Ahead of this week’s pivotal game in the Spanish capital, City are behind 3-2 overall. They must either defeat Madrid by two goals in normal time or score a goal and win the next penalty shootout. However, Guardiola isn’t really hopeful of his team’s chances of returning with a win.

“The margin to win in [the] Bernabeu in that position, everybody knows that if you ask before the game, the percentage to go through, I don’t know, we arrive at 1%, it will be minimal,” the City boss said before adding: “But as [long] as you have a chance, we will try, that’s for sure.”

Pep Guardiola believes his Man City side only have a "1%" chance of beating Real Madrid at the Bernabéu to advance to the Champions League round of 16 😳 pic.twitter.com/eSZ1Qflkjn

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) February 17, 2025

Guardiola was careful to emphasize how subpar his team has been in comparison to their high expectations. That’s even after City’s 4-0 victory over Newcastle United on Saturday suggested a late comeback to form.

“This season, the reality, we have been miles, miles away,” the Catalan coach admitted.

Even Real Madrid haven’t been totally outstanding. The Spanish powerhouses have lost seven games this season in all competitions, more than double their total defeats from the 2023–24 season. Moreover, they were held to a 1–1 tie by Osasuna over the weekend.

Erling Haaland, who netted twice for the English champions in their loss to Madrid last week, will be crucial to City’s prospects of winning in Spain. Guardiola had quickly allayed worries about a protracted absence after the talismanic attacker hobbled off against Newcastle due to a concerning knee problem.

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