UEFA Champions League qualification scenarios ahead of final matchday: Who have qualified for knockouts? Which clubs are eliminated?

The UEFA Champions League will conclude its league phase tonight.

The expanded 36-team structure of the UEFA Champions League 2025–26 has made the race for knockout berths more intense, making for an exciting league phase.

The stakes are extremely high as we get closer to the final league phase’s matchday on January 28, 2026, when all games begin simultaneously at 20:00 GMT to ensure fairness.

With one game left, each side has played seven Champions League games do far. The results will decide who progresses straight to the round of 16, who moves on to the knockout playoffs, and who loses out completely.

The competitiveness of the league phase is demonstrated by the fact that only two teams have so far mathematically guaranteed direct qualification to the round of 16.

Teams qualified for the Champions League round of 16

Arsenal (21 points, +18 GD)

Arsenal have won all seven games to build an unbeatable advantage. They have been perfect, and their 21 points ensure at least a top-two finish even if they lose their final game against Kairat Almaty.

Bayern Munich (18 points, +13 GD)

With six victories and one defeat (against Arsenal), Bayern Munich have secured a berth in the top eight of the Champions League. They would secure a top-four spot with a draw or victory in their final match against PSV Eindhoven. Even a defeat leaves them safe because the clubs below won’t be able to catch up.

Teams that can qualify for the round of 16

Real Madrid (15 points, +11 GD, current position 3rd)

Real Madrid are in charge of their own fate. Given their superior goal differential, a home victory or draw against SL Benfica would guarantee a berth in the top eight of the Champions League, possibly even in the top four. A loss might drop them as low as 12th if rivals like FC Barcelona and Manchester City win big and force them into the playoffs.

Liverpool (15 points, +6 GD, current 4th)

To most likely secure straight qualifying, the Reds must at least draw with Qarabag. If they win, they could go up to third, but if they lose and others take advantage, they could fall to tenth.

Liverpool are the favourite because of their well-balanced attack and defence. But they need to take advantage of opportunities to avoid the playoffs and keep up the pace.

Tottenham Hotspur (14 points, +8 GD, current 5th)

A win over Eintracht Frankfurt would almost surely guarantee a spot in the top eight. A draw or loss gives chasers the opportunity. But their goal differential acts as a cushion.

Paris Saint-Germain (13 points, +10 GD, current 6th)

PSG’s advantage is their better goal differential. They should secure a top-eight spot if they defeat Newcastle. Even a draw might be enough.

Newcastle United (13 points, +10 GD, current 7th)

Like PSG, a victory over the French club ensures safety. They are in a good position because of their ability to attack and win the game.

Chelsea (13 points, +6 GD, current 8th)

Napoli are a challenging away game for the Blues. A victory guarantees straight qualifying to the top eight; a defeat might force them into the playoffs.

Teams that could play in the playoffs

Barcelona (13 points, +5 GD, current 9th)

The Catalans need to defeat Copenhagen to move into the top eight. They are secure from elimination. While seeds (probably 9–16) will play unseeded teams (17–24), a draw keeps them in the playoffs.

Manchester City (13 points, +4 GD, current 11th)

With a convincing victory over Galatasarayy, City can move up to the top eight. But a mistake will result in the playoffs. Their experience makes them favourites in any tie.

Atletico Madrid (13 points, +3 GD), Atalanta (13 points, +1 GD), Inter Milan (12 points, +6 GD), Juventus (12 points, +4 GD):

These giants from Spain and Italy are almost certain to make the playoffs. Wins could help them advance directly, but the playoffs provide a second chance.

Teams that are likely facing eliminations

Teams like Club Brugge (7 points), Copenhagen (8 points), and Napoli (8 points, currently 25th) require victories and positive outcomes elsewhere to move up to 24th. For example, Napoli need to defeat Chelsea and hope teams like Olympiacos (8 points, in 24th) suffer significant losses.

Champions League clubs that are mathematically eliminated

Even with a final victory, four teams are mathematically eliminated and cannot advance to the playoffs. These include Villarreal, Kairat Almaty, Slavia Prague, and Eintracht Frankfurt.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Telegram.