Formula 1 Title Scenarios: What Lando Norris, Max Verstappen & Oscar Piastri need to win F1 title in Abu Dhabi?

Lando Norris leads the F1 2025 drivers’ championship with 408 points.

For the first time in 15 years, Formula 1 is heading into a truly high-voltage, heart-pounding finale where not not two, but three drivers are still in contention for the world title. Only one race remains, and it all comes down to the Yas Marina lights.

This Sunday, December 7, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will decide the Formula One 2025 championship. And heading into the last round, Max Verstappen finds himself wedged between McLaren’s dream duo, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, turning the championship race into an unexpectedly tight three-way battle.

Lando Norris remains on top of the standings, as he has for most of 2025, currently with 408 points. His teammate Oscar Piastri sits third with 392 points, while the Dutch superstar has surged back into the fight with 396 points after his win at the Qatar Grand Prix last weekend. All three drivers have seven race wins.

The last time we saw anything remotely like this was the four-way dogfight of 2010. The season saw Fernando Alonso leading the standings into the finale.

Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton were hunting from behind, and a 23-year-old Sebastian Vettel, the quiet outsider, was rising out of nowhere to steal the title without having led the championship for even a single day before that. And he did it in a Red Bull.

Now, 15 years later, history appears to be repeating itself. Another Red Bull driver has stormed back into the conversation, and suddenly no one, not even the calmest strategist on the pit wall, can truly say they know where this will end.

Will it be Norris’s first? Verstappen’s fifth? Or Piastri’s maiden masterpiece? No prediction dares to stand still, not in a weekend like this, especially after Verstappen’s mid-season comeback.

THREE DRIVERS, ONE WORLD TITLE…DO NOT MISS THIS ONE!!! #F1 pic.twitter.com/sDVRckTGmV

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 30, 2025

Each contender has a pathway to the crown. Norris’s path is straightforward, but for Verstappen and Piastri, the universe may need to align. There’s a chance for a tie-break also, but in that case, the Briton has all the tides in favour.

So here it is, the full championship scenario ahead of the final race of the 2025 Formula 1 season at Yas Marina Circuit.

Lando Norris – The championship leader

As the points leader, Norris has the most straightforward path to his first Formula 1 title. He just needs a clean race and smart strategy to protect his lead, though even finishing outside the podium leaves some hope for chaos to help him.

Guaranteed Title:

• If Norris finishes on the podium (1st, 2nd, or 3rd), he becomes world champion, regardless of where Verstappen or Piastri finish.

Other Scenarios:

• If Norris finishes 4th or 5th, he can still win the championship as long as Verstappen does not win the race.
• A 6th or 7th place finish for Norris can see him win if neither Verstappen nor Piastri wins.
• For 8th place – Norris can still win if Verstappen finishes 3rd or lower and Piastri does not win.
• What if Norris finishes 9th? He can win the title if Verstappen finishes 4th or lower and Piastri does not win.
• And if Norris finishes 10th, he can still wins if Verstappen finishes 4th or lower and Piastri finishes 3rd or lower.
• Even if Norris wins no points and finishes out of top 10, he still wins if Verstappen finishes 4th or lower and Piastri finishes 3rd or lower.

Max Verstappen – The Red Bull history repeating

The defending champion Max Verstappen has a narrower path, but he’s never short of drama when it matters. This time, it depends on Norris’ mistakes, but Yas Marina’s high-speed corners and pit strategy could be decisive.

Guaranteed Title:

• If Max Verstappen wins Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, he can become the champion only if Norris finishes 4th or lower.

Other Scenarios:

• If Max finishes 2nd, he needs Norris to finish 8th or lower and Piastri not to win.
• A 3rd place for Max will need Norris to finish 9th or lower and Piastri not to win.

Cannot Win:

• Max cannot win the title by finishing 4th or lower.

Oscar Piastri – The deserving

Piastri has the toughest path and must rely on both his performance and his rivals faltering. But that’s F1, here the improbable is always possible, and Abu Dhabi has a history of delivering surprises. So let’s look down on what needs to be done to earn the Aussie his first title:

Guaranteed Title:

• There is no scenario where Piastri can guarantee the title without depending on Norris or Verstappen.

Main Scenarios:

• If Piastri wins the race and Norris finishes 6th or lower, he can win the title.
• If Piastri finishes 2nd – Norris must finish 10th or lower and Verstappen must finish 4th or lower.

Cannot Win:

• Oscar Piastri cannot win the title if he finishes 3rd or lower.

Tie-breaker scenario:

Max Verstappen needs to score exactly 12 points more than Norris to tie on points (Norris has 408, Verstappen has 396). A tie-break may occur if neither of them wins the race and Max finishes 2nd (18 pts) and Lando finishes 7th (6 pts) or less.

Like that, both will end with 414 points. In this case, Norris wins the title on the countback of most second-place finishes. The 26-year-old Brit has bagged eight 2nd place finishes this season. Max has six and Piastri has four.

Now, what if Lando and Piastri end up tied on points?

In that case, the Aussie needs to score exactly 16 points more than Norris to tie on points (Norris has 408, Piastri has 392). 

If Oscar wins the race, a points tie is not possible. However, if neither of the McLaren drivers win the race and Piastri finishes 2nd (18 pts) and Norris finishes 9th (2 pts) or less, both will end with 410 points. In this case, Norris will win the title on the countback of second-place finishes.

Verstappen-Piastri tie:

Verstappen is currently 4 points ahead of Piastri. If they finish with the same number of points, the tie-breaker would go to second-place finishes, where Verstappen (6) currently leads Piastri (4).

In any of these tie scenarios where neither driver in the tie wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Lando Norris is the champion due to his superior number of second-place finishes (8) this season. 

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