Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff: Who is best placed to be World No. 1 after US Open 2025?

The race for second place in the WTA rankings is heating up ahead of the US Open 2025.

It has been an incredible turnaround over the past two months. There has been a major shake-up in the WTA rankings since the end of the clay season, with the biggest change being that of Iga Swiatek. After a dismal clay season, in which she failed to win a title or defend her previous ones.

Her stunning reign at Roland Garros also came to an end in the semi-finals, which led to her exit from the top-5 rankings. Swiatek found herself at #8, heading into the clay season.

With the Polish media paying close attention to her, and with upcoming tournaments being on less preferred surfaces, Swiatek was at risk of potentially dropping out of the top 10 WTA rankings. However, the 24-year-old defied all odds to complete the unthinkable.

Entering Wimbledon 2025 under absolutely no pressure, Swiatek enjoyed a favourable draw with top seeds falling early, and went on to score a double bagel in the title clash to win her sixth Grand Slam trophy.

Scenarios for all three WTA players-

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka has been the most consistent WTA star on tour in 2025, but has not won a Grand Slam major despite reaching two finals.

The Belarusian recently suffered a huge setback in Cincinnati, as she was unable to defend her crown due to a commanding display from Elena Rybakina in the quarter-finals. The World No. 1 must defend another 2,000 points at the US Open. Sabalenka’s preparation ahead of the US Open has not been ideal.

In the unlikely event of Sabalenka losing her opening round, she will drop to 9235 points. Even then, Sabalenka is guaranteed to hold her top spot, but the 27-year-old will then be placed dangerously close to her arch rivals, should they go the distance.

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek’s triumph at Wimbledon and Cincinnati meant that the Pole regained her World No. 2 ranking. Having reached the quarters at the US Open last year, Swiatek defends 400 points.

However, her current form suggests she will be tough to beat in New York this year, with her second US Open title also almost certain.

If Swiatek wins the trophy, she will reduce the deficit between herself and Sabalenka at the top. In a scenario where she fails to make the final four or the finals, Swiatek could be in danger of losing her #2 spot to Coco Gauff, who’s currently trailing by nearly 100 points.

Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff had a mediocre start to the 2025 calendar year; however picked up momentum at the right time. Reaching the Rome finals and then winning her first French Open title solidified her stance at #2. But the American has struggled on grass, and her return in Cincinnati was also poor.

The 21-year-old recently set the unwanted record for most double faults in a WTA-1000 match, and her forehand problems continue to impact her form. She has also parted ways with her coach ahead of this major competition.

Gauff defends 240 points at the Championship this year, but given her familiarity with the conditions in New York, Coco Gauff will be disappointed if she doesn’t reach the semi-finals. Doing so could give her a decent shot at reclaiming the World No. 2 ranking.

WTA rankings leading to the US Open 2025-

1. Aryna Sabalenka — 11225
2. Iga Świątek — 7933
3. Coco Gauff — 7874
4. Jessica Pegula — 4903
5. Mirra Andreeva — 4733
6. Madison Keys — 4699
7. Qinwen Zheng — 4433
8. Jasmine Paolini — 4116
9. Amanda Anisimova — 3869
10. Elena Rybakina — 3663

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