Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to Italian Open 2025 final

Sabalenka targets the Italian Open after title runs at Miami and Madrid.

A rare opportunity awaits Aryna Sabalenka in Rome at the 2025 Italian Open before she begins her campaign. She arrives in the Italian capital after winning WTA 1000 titles in Miami and Madrid. Victory in Rome will make the Belarusian the first woman to win the trifecta since Serena Williams in 2013.

The 27-year-old has been in stellar form this season, reaching six tour-level finals, four of them in a row since Indian Wells. The World No. 1’s three titles in 2025 (Brisbane, Miami, and Madrid) place her in the lead, paired with a tour-leading 31 match wins following her Madrid Open title run. Sabalenka will play in Rome for the first time as the World No. 1.

She made the final last season before losing to Iga Swiatek. With Swiatek not at her best, Sabalenka has extended her lead over second-ranked Swiatek to nearly 4000 points in the WTA Rankings. The gap could only grow with the Pole having to defend 3000 points and titles at Rome and Roland Garros. Let’s take a look at her potential path to the Italian Open 2025 final.

Round 2: Dayana Yastremska / Anastasia Potapova

Sabalenka could face Dayana Yastremska in a tightly-contested opening-round match that could go either way. The Ukrainian World No. 45 has a 3-1 head-to-head advantage over Sabalenka. It was three-nil until the Belarusian edged Yastremska in the third round in last season’s Italian Open. 

Facing Potapova should yield a more predictable outcome for Sabalenka. World No. 1 beats Potapova at the 2023 Stuttgart semifinal. Potpova has a third-round appearance in 2023 as her best-ever result across four visits to Rome.  

Round 3: Sofia Kenin / Katie Boulter

A third-round face-off against Sofia Kenin will bring back memories of 2023 for Sabalenka. As the Madrid Open champion that year, Sabalenka was eliminated in the second round in Rome by Kenin in straight sets. Kenin has never been a force to reckon with in the Italian capital, with her loss to Slovakian qualifier Rebecca Sramkova last year bringing her clay court credentials into question. 

Katie Boulter’s game ought to be easy pickings for Sabalenka, thanks to the Belarusian having a 4-0 advantage over the Englishwoman. Aside from the three-setter in Wimbledon 2021, Boulter is yet to make inroads into Sabalenka’s game. 

Round 4: Leylah Fernandez / Daria Kasatkina

Canadian Leylah Fernandez prevailed over Sabalenka in their only meeting to date, which took place in the 2021 US Open semi-finals. Since then, Sabalenka has emerged as a three-time Grand Slam winner, while Fernandez has been biding her time and waiting for the big win. The Canadian’s last title came in Hong Kong in the 2023 season, while her recent final was at Eastbourne in 2024. 

A convincing 7-2 head-to-head lead over Daria Kasatkina points to yet another victory for Sabalenka over the Australian. Kasatkina’s last win over Sabalenka was in 2022 in San Jose. The World No. 1 has an edge ahead of any potential fourth-round clash, thanks to a 2-0 advantage over Kasatkina on clay. 

Quarter-final: Elena Rybakina / Qinwen Zheng

Elena Rybakina is going through a tough time at the moment, and winning the Wimbledon 2022 title is now a distant memory for her. WTA 1000 appearances at Abu Dhabi and Dubai ended with Rybakina exiting in the last four.

Opening round exits at Indian Wells, Miami, and Madrid have seen the Kazakh drop out of the WTA top 10 to No. 12, which she currently occupies. That said, Rybakina has taken the fight to Sabalenka on more than one occasion. Belarusian can’t take Rybakina lightly in last-eight tie. 

However, Sabalenka’s domination of Qinwen Zheng has been total, having won all six previous encounters against the Chinese. Since winning singles gold at the 2024 Paris Games, Zheng has slipped as she has not won a title since the Tokyo Open in October. With two quarter-finals in as many years in the Italian capital, Zheng could spring a surprise should she cross paths with Sabalenka. 

Semi-final: Coco Gauff / Mirra Andreeva

Top seed and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka could face two of her old rivals in the semi-final. One could see Sabalenka take on Coco Gauff as they renew their rivalry following their meeting in the Madrid Open finals.

Sabalenka crossing paths with Mirra Andreeva for a third time this season remains a possibility. They clashed at the Australian Open in January and Indian Wells in March. It could be a real test for the Belarusian if she faces Gauff or Andreeva in the last four. A loss to Andreeva at Indian Wells narrowed Sabalenka’s lead over the Russian teenager to 4-2.

Her head-to-head against Coco Gauff is locked at 5-5 after Sabalenka turned the tables on Gauff in Madrid last week. Gauff’s clay court credentials got a boost after she drubbed Iga Swiatek, 6-1, 6-1, on her favourite surface in the Spanish capital.

Final: Jasmine Paolini / Iga Swiatek

Aryna Sabalenka is seeded to meet either Jasmine Paolini or Iga Świątek in the title round. Sabalenka will have the advantage heading into the title round against either player. The top seed is 5-2 against Italy’s Paolini and is placed well to narrow the 4-8 gap should she cross paths with a lacklustre Swiatek.

Swiatek is on shaky ground after going 4-0 in the semi-finals this season. She heads to Rome, followed by Roland Garros, as the defending champion with 3000 points at stake. The Pole looks far from being a world-beater at the moment, having not won a title since the 2024 French Open. 

Jasmine Paolini has managed to hold on to her WTA Top 5 ranking despite being unable to defend her WTA 1000 title in Dubai. The Italian is one to watch out for at her home tournament as she made the last four in Miami and Stuttgart despite losing to Sabalenka.

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