Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: US Open 2025

Aryna Sabalenka is off to a very shaky start despite the scorelines suggesting otherwise.

Aryna Sabalenka battled through a wobbly start to defeat unseeded Russian Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4), 6-2 and reach the third round of the U.S. Open. After saving four break points and dropping serve early, the defending champion steadied herself to claim a tense first-set tiebreak before taking control of the match.

The World No. 1 capitalized on Kudermetova’s unforced errors in the second set, breaking early and maintaining her momentum to close out the contest. Sabalenka might have prevailed, but she looked a shadow of her past best.

Such has been the case since Wimbledon, with the Belarusian still struggling to find her rhythm on her preferred surface. While she has managed to advance despite not being anywhere near her best in the opening two rounds, the 27-year-old knows such lapses will not go unpunished against stronger opponents.

Match Details

• Tournament: US Open 2025
• Round: Third Round
• Date: August 30
• Venue: USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Centre, New York, United States
• Surface: Hard

ALSO READ: US Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, & live streaming details

Preview

Leylah Fernandez rallied from a set down to defeat France’s Elsa Jacquemot 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 and reach the U.S. Open third round. The 31st seed struggled on serve in the opening set, winning only one service game, but found her rhythm thereafter, holding serve consistently and breaking her opponent three times to seal the comeback in just over two hours.

The 2021 runner-up will now face world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in a highly anticipated clash. Their only previous meeting came at the 2021 U.S. Open, where Fernandez stunned Sabalenka to reach her maiden Grand Slam final.

Leylah Fernandez staged a strong comeback to defeat #93 Elsa Jacquemot 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, advancing to the U.S. Open third round for the first time since her 2021 final run. After a modest start marked by unforced errors and a lack of rhythm on serve, the 31st seed found her range in the second set, attacking early and forcing longer rallies to level the match.

In the decider, Fernandez carried her momentum, breaking Jacquemot twice and controlling play with aggressive shot-making and confident net approaches. The Washinton Open 2025 champion now sets up a re-match of the 2021 US Open semifinals, when the second seeded Sabalenka was stunned by Fernandez.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-L-W-W
• Leylah Fernandez: W-W-L-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 1
• Aryna Sabalenka: 0
• Leylah Fernandez: 1

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 52-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 30-6 win-loss record in New York.
• Sabalenka has won 69% of matches played on hard courts.

Leylah Fernandez

• Fernandez has a 24-20 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Fernandez has a 10-5 win-loss record in New York.
• Fernandez has won 63% of matches played on hard courts

Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -625, Fernandez +480
• Spread: Sabalenka -5.5 (+100), Fernandez +5.5 (-120)
• Total Games: Over 19.5 (-120), Under 19.5 (-104)
• 1st Set Winner: Sabalenka -425, Fernandez +310
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 8.5 (-220), Under 9.5 (-159)

ALSO READ: US Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Match Prediction

Fernandez embarked a stunning campaign to triumph in Citi, but has undergone a slump in form since. The Canadian needs consistency, and is tasked with the challenge of overcoming the top seed. Fernandez is no stranger to beating top players, having defeated Pegula and Rybakina, a few weeks back.

Sabalenka has in her campaign so far, struggled for dominance. The version of herself which was ruthless for the first six months has been missing now, and the Belarusian will have to step up quickly as competition intensifies.

Serving struggles and uncharacteristic return errors have defined her recent dip in form. If she can rediscover her rhythm, she will once again be a formidable contender. However, Fernandez has the ability to dictate terms if the Belarusian fails to find her range. Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on who handles their emotions and nerves better under pressure—and few have done that more consistently than Sabalenka this year.

Result: Sabalenka will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch the live telecast and streaming of Aryna Sabalenka and Leylah Fernandez, third-round match at the US Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the US Open 2025 third-round clash between Aryna Sabalenka and Leylah Fernandez on the Star Sports network and stream via JioHotstar.UK fans can watch on Sky Sports Tennis, the Sky Sports+ app, or stream with a NOW TV Sports Pass. In the USA, coverage will be on ESPN platforms—ESPN2, ESPNEWS, and ESPN+ across all rounds.

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