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Australian Open

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Australian Open 2025

Published at :January 25, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Modified at :January 25, 2025 at 6:00 AM
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Aniruddh Seshadri


Aryna Sabalenka is one win away from achieving hat-trick of Australian Open titles.

After 20 days of exhilarating tennis, full of action, drama and emotion, it comes down to one final clash. Aryna Sabalenka is about to accomplish a rare milestone in the sport, with a three-peat on the cards. Most expect the Belarusian to be on the podium, come the finale but the other finalist has been the story of the competition.

Madison Keys, ranked 19, has paved her way to the biggest stage beating some of the best WTA stars. The American has downed 10th seed Danielle Collins in the third round, former Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, Elina Svitolina in the quarters and the biggest upset of all, Iga Swiatek in the semi-finals.

Keys showed remarkable tenacity and courage and stayed in the battle despite saving four break points and one match point in the decider set against the second seed. The American qualified for a Grand Slam final for the first time since 2017 US Open.

Match details

  • Tournament: Australian Open 2025
  • Round: Final
  • Date: January 25
  • Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Australia
  • Surface: Hard Court

Preview

Sabalenka and Keys have had contrasting campaigns and yet are just one triumph away from glory at the Melbourne Park. Sabalenka, has enjoyed a smooth ride so far in her journey Down Under, losing just one set so far, while Keys has had to face some of the biggest names in WTA, making it arguably her best Grand Slam outing.

While the American is on the lookout for a maiden Grand Slam trophy, Sabalenka is about to create history. The 26-year-old Belarus leads the head-to-head battle 4-1 against the American. Both players will be riding high on confidence after their heroics in the marquee event.

However, a Grand Slam final demands immense composure and the player who keeps her nerve in crunch moments will prevail. Keys managed to outdo Swiatek by nailing her serves when she was three break points and a match point down, while Sabalenka clearly knows what it takes to get her hands on the silverware, having accomplished the task thrice in her career so far.

Form

Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-W

Madison Keys: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

Matches: 5

Aryna Sabalenka: 4

Madison Keys: 1

In their most recent battle in Beijing, Sabalenka defeated Keys in straight sets.

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

  • Sabalenka leads Keys by 4-1 in the head-to-head battle
  • Sabalenka has a 10-0 win/loss record in the 2025 season
  • Sabalenka is 24-5 at the Australian Open

Madison Keys

  • Keys trails Sabalenka by 1-4 in the head-to-head battle
  • Keys has a 13-1 win/loss record in the 2025 season
  • Keys is 28-10 at the Melbourne Park

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys: Betting tips and odds

  • Moneyline: Sabalenka -300, Keys +215 
  • Spread: Sabalenka +4.5 (-1.83), Keys -4.5 (=2.00) 
  • Total sets: Over 20.5 (-1.83), Under 20.5 (+2.00)

Match Prediction

Aryna Sabalenka was the standout favourite to win the Australian Open, prior to the commencement of the competition. Given her dominance in every contest, she has played so far, she remains the top contender to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup.

Keys though has already defeated three higher ranked players in the event so far. Sabalenka though, with her brute power, thunderous forehand winners and big serves could prove to be a stern challenge for the American. Moreover, the top seed has the experience of delivering on the big stage.

A lot depends on the 19th seed’s first serves, as when she got it right, it made life difficult for her rivals. However, her second serves were slow and lacked venom as shown by the Pole in the semi-final. With abundant power and excellent placement tricks up her sleeve, Sabalenka would be waiting to pounce on such opportunities.

Result: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys, women’s singles final at Australian Open 2025?

The 2025 Australian Open final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will be broadcasted live on Sony Sports Network and their streaming service SonyLiv. In the UK, the tournament will be live on Eurosport and streaming on Discovery+ app while ESPN and Tennis channel hold the broadcast rights in the USA. ESPN+ and Fubo will be streaming the event.

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