Coco Gauff's projected path to Canadian Open 2024 final

Coco Gauff is the top seed at the Canadian Open in Iga Swiatek’s absence.

Reigning US Open champion Coco Gauff is the top seed at the 2024 Canadian Open following Iga Swiatek’s withdrawal. The event serves as a warmup for the US Open, the season’s last Grand Slam. Gauff is scheduled to play another WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati before making her way to Flushing Meadows for a title defense. 

The WTA World No. 2 is joined by the current Australian Open champion, Aryna Sabalenka, and defending champion Jessica Pegula. While Sabalenka is in the bottom half of the draw, Pegula shares space with Gauff in the draw’s top half.

Gauff recently completed 100 consecutive weeks in the WTA Top 10. She made it into the exclusive club in September 2022 after reaching the US Open quarterfinal, moving from No. 12 to No. 8, and hasn’t left since.

The top eight seeds have received a first-round bye in a field depleted of several top players due to their withdrawal following the Paris Olympics. Four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka and Tunisian Ons Jabeur can also be found in the top half of the draw.

Among the big names not making it to Toronto include World No. 1 Iga Swiatek, fourth-ranked Elena Rybakina, Olympic Gold medallist Zheng Qinwen, and 2024 Wimbledon champ Barbora Krecjikova.

Second Round – Sofia Kenin

Gauff is expected to take on compatriot Sofia Kenin at the beginning of her campaign. Kenin’s first-round opponent is Chinese qualifier Wang Yafan. The top seed trails Kenin 2-1 in their career head-to-head. Most recently at the 2023 Wimbledon edition, Kenin sent Gauff home in the opening round in three sets.

The 25-year-old Kenin was a semi-finalist at the 2019 Canadian Open and lifted the Australian Open trophy in 2020. Despite her win on the hard courts of Melbourne, Kenin will have her work cut out if she is to overcome her 14-9 season record and post a victory over her younger rival. 

Third Round – Diana Shnaider

Diana Shnaider could very well be Coco Gauff’s third-round opponent, and the duo will be crossing paths on the WTA Tour for the first time if that meeting takes place. In a battle between a pair of 20-year-olds, Shnaider can be expected to give as good as she gets.

Not only has she seen a quick rise through the rankings, moving from 97 in January of this year to 24 by August. Shnaider is also 13-7 on hard courts this season and is a versatile player, having won three singles titles.

Quarter-finals – Liudmila Samsonova

With a lead of 3-0 in her head-to-head over Samsonova, Gauff should have little trouble getting past the World No. 13 from Russia. Gauff has an 18-5 hard-court season record, which can also tilt the outcome in her favor. Samsonova is 4-9 on hard courts this season, and all her three losses to the American have come on hard courts.

Yet, Samsonova does have the experience of playing the final at Montreal, the event’s venue last season. Gauff, meanwhile, is yet to make it past the quarter-final in any of her three appearances.

Semi-finals – Jessica Pegula

The semi-final round could see Gauff pitted against Jessica Pegula, the defending champion at the Toronto WTA 1000 event. Pegula got the better of  Liudmila Samsonova in last year’s title clash in straight sets, dropping only a game in the match.

Another hurdle would be the 4-1 lead Pegula enjoys over Coco Gauff, with three of those four wins coming on hard courts. The most recent win by Pegula came in the last four of the 2023 WTA Finals.

Final – Aryna Sabalenka

A face-off between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka will see the two big servers play for the eighth occasion and the second time this season. When they met in Melbourne, the Belarusian prevailed in straight sets. Like Gauff, Sabalenka is yet to make the final of the Canadian Open. However, the World No. 3 has the advantage of going one step further than Gauff with a semi-final appearance in 2021.

It will be a grudge match between the duo as Sabalenka will look to reclaim the No. 2 ranking in the WTA Tour that she lost to Gauff in June this year. The Belarusian World No. 2 will also look to even their head-to-head, currently in Gauff’s favor at 4-3.

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