Coco Gauff's projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Coco Gauff is currently ranked as World No. 4

Coco Gauff lost her third spot on the WTA rankings after a poor start to the 2025 calendar year. Trying to put the hard-court outing behind her, the American fell to Jasmine Paolini in the quarter-finals of the Stuttgart Open 2025. Gauff reached the round of 16 in Madrid last year and would hope to turn things around in her favour.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in women’s singles at Madrid Open 2025

Round 1: Bye

Round 2: Dayana Yastremska / Qualifier

Coco Gauff is set to kick off her Madrid Open 2025 campaign against either Dayana Yastremska or a qualifier, and she’ll enter the matchup as the clear favorite. The American holds a perfect 2-0 record over Yastremska on clay, having defeated her in straight sets at both the Madrid Open and French Open in 2024.

Round 3: Leylah Fernandez

Leylah Fernandez enters Madrid with an 8-8 record in 2025 and a dip in form, having lost four of her last five matches. Her best results this season include third-round finishes at the Australian Open and Qatar Open.

If Fernandez gets past the early rounds, she could face Coco Gauff for the third time this season. Gauff has won both their previous meetings in straight sets—at the United Cup and the Australian Open, and is expected to complete a hat-trick.

Round 4: Beatriz Haddad Maia / Clara Tauson / Belinda Bencic

If seedings hold, Beatriz Haddad Maia is projected to face Coco Gauff in the fourth round. However, the Brazilian’s chances appear slim as she is currently on a nine-match losing streak. Clara Tauson, who made a surprise run to the WTA 1000 final in Dubai, has also struggled since, winning just two matches in her last few tournaments.

A more realistic threat to Gauff’s progress could be Belinda Bencic. Though unseeded, the Swiss star has the experience and firepower to challenge the American. Their head-to-head stands evenly at 2-2, with both encounters in 2025 going the distance. Gauff edged out Bencic at the Australian Open, while Bencic took revenge at the BNP Paribas Open.

Quarter-final: Mirra Andreeva / Karolina Muchova

Mirra Andreeva will be a tough challenge for Keys. The Czech has been the player to watch out for this year, following her blitz in Dubai and Indian Wells, where she downed Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina, and other top seeds.

However, the Russian hasn’t begun the clay season well despite having a breakthrough season last year in this format. Moreover, Gauff holds a 2-0 lead in their head-to-head and has remarkably never lost to a player younger than herself. Karolina Muchova could be another potential rival, against whom Gauff has an unassailable lead of 4-0.

Semi-final: Iga Swiatek / Madison Keys

It could be challenging for Gauff to face Iga Swiatek on clay because of her impressive record. The defending champion is a hot favorite and has dominated her rivalry against Gauff in the past.

However, should Swiatek fail to qualify for the semi-finals, Gauff could meet fellow American Madison Keys, who had knocked out the former US Open champion from the Madrid Open last year.

Final: Aryna Sabalenka

If Gauff reaches the final, she could meet Aryna Sabalenka yet again. Sabalenka is coming off a final appearance in the Stuttgart Open and will be determined to go one better. The Belarusian has already won two titles in Madrid and is on the verge of a three-peat.

Going by her current form, the World No. 1 looks dangerous but certainly not invincible on clay. Moreover, Gauff holds a 5-4 lead over Sabalenka, and it could turn out to be an entertaining match.

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