Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Australian Open 2026
Ruthless Rybakina delivered a statement win to dispatch Iga Swiatek in straight sets.
Elena Rybakina delivered a commanding performance to defeat Iga Swiatek 7-5, 6-1 in the Australian Open quarter-finals, ending Swiatek’s bid to complete a career Grand Slam. The match was tighter than the scoreline initially suggested, with Rybakina showing composure in key moments of the first set.
Initially, both players started slowly on serve, breaking each other’s games to stay tied at 4-4. When down 0-40 in the third game of the match after an exchange of breaks, Rybakina successfully served her way out of trouble, helped by a first of eventual 11 aces.
The Kazakh amped her level as the match went on, and the Pole never stood a chance once Rybakina hit the ground running.
The contest ultimately hinged on the serve. Rybakina’s power and pace consistently rushed Swiatek, who has struggled with serve stability throughout the tournament following technical changes in the offseason.
Despite a shockingly low first serve percentage of just 41% in the opening set, Rybakina compensated with accuracy and depth, finishing with a flurry of aces and dominating short rallies.
Swiatek, by contrast, was forced to work hard for holds, a pattern that eventually tilted momentum firmly in Rybakina’s favour. The second seed performed poorly by her standards, by surprisingly not exchanging in any drop shots or bringing in variety to her game and instead playing in Rybakina’s hands with baseline rallies.
Having not dropped a set so far, the 2022 Wimbledon champion will meet another player who has played flawless tennis in the tournament so far, in the form of Jessica Pegula. The 31-year-old beat fellow American Amanda Anisimova 6-2, 7-6(1) and reached her maiden Australian Open semi-final.
From the outset on Rod Laver Arena, Pegula’s sharp footwork, clean ball striking, and disciplined shot selection allowed her to seize control, breaking early and racing through the first set in just half an hour.
The second set proved more competitive as Anisimova briefly found her range and managed to disrupt Pegula’s rhythm, but the sixth seed responded with calm under pressure.
Pegula’s serving remained a key factor, particularly her improved second serve, while Anisimova’s mounting double faults and unforced errors tilted momentum back.
The victory marked a significant milestone in Pegula’s career, making her the first woman in the Open Era to reach her first three Grand Slam semi-finals after turning 30.
Match details
- Tournament: Australian Open 2026
- Round: Semi-Final
- Date: January 29
- Venue: Melbourne, Australia
- Surface: Hard Court
Preview
Rybakina and Pegula are both eyeing a maiden Australian Open title. Their rivalry adds to the curiosity, having last played in Riyadh during the WTA Finals. Rybakina prevailed in three, after dropping the opening set then.
Pegula has quietly completed an incredible run to the final four, taking down the reigning champion and the fourth seed on her way. The American has been serving well, and has the shots at her disposal to challenge the in-form Rybakina.
Recent head-to-head form favours the Kazakh, with both wins coming in 2025. After defeating the second seed, Elena Rybakina is now not just a favorite for this battle alone, but a top contender to take the crown.
Form
- Elena Rybakina: W-W-W-W-W
- Jessica Pegula: W-W-W-W-W
Head-to-head record
- Matches: 6
- Elena Rybakina: 3
- Jessica Pegula: 3
Stats
Elena Rybakina
- Rybakina has a 7-1 win-loss record in the 2026 season
- Rybakina has a 19-6 win-loss record at the Australian Open
- Rybakina has won 68% of matches played on hard courts
Jessica Pegula
- Pegula has a 8-1 win-loss record in the 2026 season
- Pegula has a 21-8 win-loss record at the Australian Open
- Pegula has won 68% of matches played on hard courts
Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula: Betting tips and odds
- Moneyline: Rybakina -213, Pegula +185
- Spread: Rybakina -3 (-116), Pegula +3.5 (-125)
- Total Games: Over 22.5 (-110), Under 23.5 (-135)
- 1st Set Winner: Rybakina -175, Pegula +148
Match prediction
Both players face a swift turnaround, with the semi-finals scheduled for the very next day following their quarter-final victories, adding a physical and mental test to an already high stakes encounter.
Rybakina got away with her low serving percentage against Swiatek in the first set, but she must hit the ground running against Pegula. The American has proven that pressure doesn’t trouble her and has the skills at her disposal to get past the Kazakh.
Pegula’s innovative drop shots, deftness and net play will be required. Lessons must be learnt from Swiatek’s loss, and the American needs to ensure Rybakina rushes towards the net and is continuously on the run, instead of simply bashing the ball across the net.
Should Pegula deliver a disciplined tactical masterclass, she could stand a chance against the Kazakh. However, solid returning alone will not be enough. She must punish Rybakina’s second serve and find a way to neutralize the pace on the first serve to extend rallies and seize control of points.
The match ultimately comes down to Rybakina’s serve success and ability to negotiate Pegula’s craftiness. It will once again be a battle of fine margins, but the American could potentially prove the betting markets wrong, and stir an incredible upset to reach the finals.
Result: Jessica Pegula to win in three sets.
Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula, semi-final match at Australian Open 2026?
The semi-final round in women’s singles will be available for the Indian viewers on the Sony Sports Network on TV and its streaming service Sony Liv.
In the USA, the first Major of the year is being telecasted on the ESPN sports network and is being streamed on Fubo. In the UK, the match will be broadcast live on Eurosport. It will also be available for users on the Discovery+ app.
For worldwide broadcast details click here.
Where and how to watch Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula semi-final match at Australian Open 2026?
The women’s singles semi-final clash will be held at the Rod Laver Arena on January 29 (Thursday). It has a tentative start time of 8:40 pm local time and 3:10 pm IST in India.
What is the head-to-head record between Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula?
They have met six times on tour previously and both share three wins each.
Has Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula met at the Australian Open previously?
No, this is set to be their first-ever meeting at the Happy Slam.
What happened in the most recent meeting between Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula?
Their most recent meeting was at the WTA Finals in Riyadh last year, where Rybakina recovered from a set down to win 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram
Aniruddh Seshadri Iyer is a passionate sports journalist at Khel Now, specializing in tennis and Olympic sports. An engineer by training, he found his storytelling passion through iconic Grand Slam and Olympic moments. Known for sharp analysis and insightful coverage, he draws inspiration from Novak Djokovic’s resilience. Outside journalism, he enjoys reading, traveling, and playing the guitar.