Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Madrid Open 2025 will be the sixth WTA-1000 semi-final between Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff.

A rare occasion when all top seeds qualify for the semi-finals, promising an exciting end to the Madrid Open 2025. Coco Gauff has found her form and has registered two sensational victories on her route to the semi-finals.

After avenging her Indian Wells loss against Belinda Bencic, she crushed the teen sensation Mirra Andreeva in straight sets. The American hasn’t dropped a set since her first match, and her impressive performance in Madrid has helped her rise to third place in the WTA rankings.

Iga Swiatek had an unusually tumultuous outing at the Madrid Open, a departure from her usual impressive performances this season. After tense wins over Alexandra Eala and Diana Shnaider, the World No. 1 was stunned with a 0-6 opening set against Madison Keys in the quarter-finals.

Another early exit seemed imminent, but the reigning champion displayed the grit and composure of a five-time Grand Slam winner, mounting a spirited comeback to turn the match around and keep her title defense alive.

Match Details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: May 1
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Swiatek and Gauff are set to face off for the 15th time, with the Pole holding a commanding 11–3 head-to-head record. One of Gauff’s rare wins came earlier this season at the United Cup final. However, the statistics are even more lopsided on clay courts, with Swiatek not only undefeated against Gauff but she has also having never lost a set against the American on this court.

This one-sided history will undoubtedly play a psychological role in this high-stakes contest. That said, Gauff has thrived as the underdog throughout the season and is enjoying her best run yet in Madrid. Interestingly, while Swiatek has dominated their rivalry overall, Gauff has claimed victory in their last two meetings, perhaps signaling a shift in momentum.

Form

• Iga Swiatek: W-W-W-W-L
• Coco Gauff: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 14
• Iga Swiatek: 11
• Coco Gauff: 3

Stats

Iga Swiatek

• Swiatek has a 26-7 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Swiatek has a 17-2 win-loss record in Madrid
• Swiatek has an 88% win record on clay

Coco Gauff 

• Gauff maintains an 18-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Gauff has an 8-4 win-loss record in Madrid
• Gauff owns a 73% win record on clay

Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Swiatek -184, Gauff +175
• Spread: Swiatek -3.5 (+100), Gauff +3.5 (-120)
• Total Games: Over 21.5 (-118), Under 21.5 (-105)

Match Prediction

Swiatek enters the Madrid semi-final with an eye on ending a frustrating streak—she’s 0–4 in semi-finals since her triumph at Roland Garros 2024. Despite this recent hurdle, her dominance on clay and against Coco Gauff remains unquestionable; the American has yet to take a set off her on this surface.

The World No. 2 has struggled to close out high-stakes matches this season, but she’ll be eager to reverse that narrative in Madrid. On the other hand, Gauff has won their last two encounters and is aiming for a hat-trick, which would be a significant turnaround in their rivalry.

With both players in fine form, this promises to be a high-octane, quality-filled battle. Ultimately, the player who holds their nerve and seizes the key moments will likely emerge victorious.

Result: Gauff will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff, semi-final match at Madrid Open 2025?

The semi-final match between Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff at the Madrid Open 2025 will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

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