Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Bad Homburg Open 2025

Paolini seeks her maiden win against Swiatek, who hasn’t reached a final since Roland Garros 2024.

Ahead of Wimbledon, a heavy-weight contest is set to take place in Bad Homburg Open 2025, between two top contenders. Iga Swiatek, a five-time Grand Slam champion faces off against Jasmine Paolini, a two-time Grand Slam finalist. It has been a very interesting journey for Swiatek, since winning Roland Garros in 2024.

A lean patch, not necessarily any major change in her playing game, but being titleless for such a long period is why she has dropped off the rankings in a dramatic manner. The Pole will look to make up for lost ground in the second half of 2025, where she has plenty to gain.

Paolini, on the other hand, has an important tournament coming up. Wimbledon proved to be a happy hunting ground for the Italian last year, as she defeated Donna Vekic to reach the final, losing to eventual champion Barbora Krejcikova. Paolini would hope to enter the prestigious tournament on the back of a good outing in Bad Homburg.

Match details

• Tournament: Bad Homburg Open 2025
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: June 27
• Venue: Bad Homburg Tennis Club, Bad Homburg, Germany
• Surface: Grass

Preview

Swiatek has a poor record on grass, but fared well against Azarenka and Alexandrova in the first two rounds. The Pole will face her ultimate test against the Italian, who holds a better record on this surface. After a shocking opening round defeat in Berlin, she was made to toil hard by Leylah Fernandez in the initial encounter, but Paolini closed the contest in two tiebreaks.

While Swiatek’s recent form hasn’t been too bad, she has found a way to lose every semi-final she has played over the last 24 months. She hasn’t played a final since 2024 French Open, and would be hoping to break this trend on her least preferred surface.

Much to the advantage of the fourth seed, is the duo’s overall head-to-head, which is currently 4-0 in favour of the former World No. #1. Their last meeting took place at the BJK Cup in 2024, where Swiatek dropped her only set against the Italian, in their previous four exchanges.

With both players carrying the weight of unfulfilled goals on grass, they’ll be eager to shake off past disappointments as they head into the prestigious Wimbledon Championships.

Form

• Jasmine Paolini: W-W-L-L-W
• Iga Swiatek: W-W-L-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Paolini: 0
• Swiatek: 4

Stats

Jasmine Paolini

• Paolini has a 28-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Paolini has won 66.7% of matches played on grass
• Paolini has won one title in 2025 so far (Italian Open)

Iga Swiatek

• Swiatek has a 33-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Swiatek has won 71% of matches played on grass
• Swiatek is yet to win a title in 2025 so far

Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Jasmine Paolini +200, Iga Swiatek -250
• Spread: Paolini +3.5 (-110), Swiatek -3.5 (-125)
• Total Games: Over 21.5 (-120), Under 21.5 (-120)
• 1st Set Moneyline: Paolini +163, Swiatek -200
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (+110), Under 9.5 (-150)

Match prediction

Paolini will look to take the aggressive route against Swiatek, who defended well against the hard-hitting Azarenka and Alexandrova, but it was her serving which often brought her in trouble against the eighth seed in their quarter-final clash. The Italian will look to take control of the match, and keeping the unforced errors in check will be key.

If she can stay on the front foot without allowing Swiatek to dictate terms, Paolini will fancy her chances of claiming her maiden win against the former No #1.

This match should give tennis fans a clear picture of what to expect from Swiatek at Wimbledon 2025. Whilst a win over the 2024 finalist would significantly boost her morale and title hopes, we back the second seed to emerge victorious in this battle.

Result: Jasmine Paolini to win in three sets. 

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini, women’s singles semi-final match at Bad Homburg Open 2025?

Indian tennis fans hoping to watch Jasmine Paolini against Iga Swiatek in the Bad Homburg Open 2025 semi finals will have to rely on online streaming, as the match won’t be televised in India. Instead, viewers can catch the action live on WTA TV and Tennis TV.

Sky UK holds the broadcasting rights in the United Kingdom, while fans in the United States can watch it via the Tennis Channel.

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