Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula final prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Bad Homburg Open 2025

Swiatek will play her maiden final in over a year.

Iga Swiatek brought up her 50th win over a top-10 player, taking down Wimbledon 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini in straight sets. The Pole made a statement with this victory, as her record on grass has been underwhelming prior to this season.

Having failed to qualify for a final across all the tournaments she played earlier this year, mainly on clay, which was her fortress, Swiatek will now look to conquer grass, and re-assert herself as a dominant force on the WTA arena.

Match details

• Tournament: Bad Homburg Open 2025
• Round: Final
• Date: June 28
• Venue: Bad Homburg Tennis Club, Bad Homburg, Germany
• Surface: Grass

Preview

Swiatek’s win over Paolini has increased her stakes ahead of Wimbledon 2025. While she dominated her round, Jessica Pegula found things far more challenging. An upset seemed to be on the cards as Linda Noskova was a set up over the top seed in the semis.

But the American fought back hard, to get the job done in three sets. Pegula had beaten Swiatek when they met previously at the US Open, but it is the former World No. #1 who leads the h2h. After a one-way traffic in their rivalry in the initial few rounds, the pendulum has swung from one player to the other in the last six exchanges, with both winning alternately. Bad Homburg 2025 final will mark their maiden duel on grass.

Form

• Jessica Pegula: W-W-W-L-L
• Iga Swiatek: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 10
• Pegula: 4
• Swiatek: 6

Stats

Jessica Pegula

• Pegula has a 33–12 win–loss record in the 2025 season
• Pegula has won 58.0% of her matches on grass (29–21)
• Pegula has won two titles in 2025 so far (ATX Open, Charleston Open

Iga Swiatek

• Swiatek has a 34-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Swiatek has won 71% of matches played on grass
• Swiatek is yet to win a title in 2025 so far

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Jessica Pegula +215, Iga Swiatek -235
• Spread: Pegula +3.5 (+100), Swiatek -3.5 (-118)
• Total Games: Over 21.5 (-105), Under 21.5 (-114)
• 1st Set Moneyline: Pegula +163, Swiatek -200
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (+110), Under 9.5 (-134)

Match prediction

Swiatek’s recent domination over Paolini has certainly tilted the balance in her favour. The Pole might be on her way to achieving “complete tennis” if she finally clinches a title on grass.

However, Pegula won’t make it easy for the fourth seed, having shown tremendous grit against the Czech in the semi-finals. A wait of nearly 13 months could finally end for the 24-year-old, on her least favored surface.

Result: Iga Swiatek to win in three sets. 

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula, women’s singles final match at Bad Homburg Open 2025?

Indian tennis fans hoping to watch Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek in the Bad Homburg Open 2025 final will have to rely on online streaming, as the match won’t be televised in India. Instead, viewers can catch the action live on WTA TV and Tennis TV.

Sky UK holds the broadcasting rights in the United Kingdom, while fans in the United States can watch it via the Tennis Channel.

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