Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Australian Open 2026
Novak Djokovic hasn’t won a set at the Australian Open since beating van de Zandschulp on January 24.
Lorenzo Musetti’s Australian Open quarter-final against Novak Djokovic ended in heartbreaking fashion after the Italian was forced to retire despite holding a commanding two-set lead. Musetti had outplayed the 10-time champion early, taking the first two sets 6-4, 6-3 with aggressive baseline play and sharp variety, breaking Djokovic’s serve repeatedly.
However, an upper right leg injury in the third set halted his momentum, and after attempting to continue following treatment, the 23-year-old had no option but to stop.
Djokovic, who trailed and admitted he was struggling badly for rhythm, advanced to his 13th Australian Open semi-final under unfortunate circumstances.
He was gracious in his on-court interview, openly acknowledging that Musetti had been the better player and deserved the win.
The Serbian also reached two major milestones during the match, becoming only the third man to play 1,400 tour-level matches and moving ahead of Roger Federer for the most Australian Open singles wins in history with 103.
The result keeps Djokovic on course for a record-extending 11th Australian Open title and a 25th Grand Slam crown, though he conceded he must raise his level significantly in the semi-finals.
Once again, it will be his arch nemesis and two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner, who stands in the Serb’s path to reach a first Grand Slam final since Wimbledon 2024.
Sinner continued his dominant run at the Australian Open with a composed straight-sets victory over Ben Shelton in the quarter-finals. Playing at the Rod Laver Arena, the Italian won 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 to register his ninth consecutive straight sets win over the American.
Statistically, the World No. 2 was clinical, winning 107 total points, with 33 winners, and won 78 percent of points on his first serve and 65 percent on his second. His efficiency at the net stood out, with 20 of 24 points won, while Shelton’s challenge was undermined by 34 unforced errors and missed chances at key moments.
Even when briefly tested in the third set, the Italian responded with trademark composure to close out the match in just over two hours.
Match details
- Tournament: Australian Open 2026
- Round: Semi-Final
- Date: January 30
- Venue: Melbourne, Australia
- Surface: Hard Court
Also Read: Which player has the best odds to win Australian Open 2026?
Preview
Djokovic might be the greatest tennis player, but he has struggled to find his way past Sinner. The Italian has won their last five meetings, and since 2024, Sinner has won most of his matches against Djokovic with ease.
The Australian Open semi-final was the very stage when Sinner officially announced himself to the world, defeating Djokovic in four sets, back in 2024, to end the Serbian’s hopes of a fifth straight triumph in Melbourne.
While he seemed to play some of his best tennis in the initial three rounds, the Serbian got out of jail against Musetti in the quarter-finals.
With a bye in the fourth round and just two sets in the QF, Djokovic has spent around seven hours on court, which is significantly lesser as compared to his rivals.
The Serbian should hence be a lot fresher, but his poor outing against Musetti provides a grim look for his chances to finally get the better of Sinner. The Italian has enjoyed a convincing run, apart from his third-round battle against Eliot Spizzirri, when he struggled under the sun and dropped his only set.
Form
- Novak Djokovic: W-W-W-W-W
- Jannik Sinner: W-W-W-W-W
Head-to-head record
- Matches: 10
- Djokovic: 4
- Sinner: 6
Stats
Novak Djokovic
- Djokovic has a 4-0 win-loss record in the 2026 season
- Djokovic has a 103-10 win-loss record at the Australian Open
- Djokovic has won 84% of matches played on hard courts
Jannik Sinner
- Sinner has a 5-0 win-loss record in the 2026 season
- Sinner has a 27-4 win-loss record in Melbourne
- Sinner has a 77% winning record on hardcourt
Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner: Betting tips and odds
- Moneyline: Novak Djokovic: +721, Jannik Sinner: -1100
- Spread: Novak Djokovic +7.5 (-135), Jannik Sinner -6.5 (-124)
- Total Games: Over 32 games: -125, Under 33.5 games: -110
Match prediction
This semi-final is expected to be played under the lights in a night session, conditions that strongly favour Sinner, who has been almost untouchable when temperatures drop in Melbourne.
On current form, Djokovic faces a daunting task to stay competitive, and victory appears a long shot unless he produces something extraordinary.
The unforced errors that crept into Djokovic’s game against Musetti will simply not be affordable against the second seed. If the Serbian hopes to remain in contention, he must tighten his shot selection, sustain a high level of consistency, and summon flashes of brilliance at crucial moments to disrupt Sinner’s rhythm.
Even so, the matchup is not entirely without nuance. Despite the straight-sets scoreline, Sinner was not at his sharpest against Shelton, particularly on first serve. Djokovic, the fresher and fitter player this time, must seize any opening and extend rallies to test the Italian physically and mentally.
While a record 25th Grand Slam title is just two wins away for Djokovic, betting markets tell the story: Sinner is a clear favourite, and anything short of a convincing win for the two-time defending champion would be a surprise.
Result: Jannik Sinner to win in straight sets.
Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner, semi-final match at Australian Open 2026?
The semi-final round in men’s singles will be available for the Indian viewers on the Sony Sports Network on TV and its streaming service Sony Liv.
In the USA, the first Major of the year is being telecasted on the ESPN sports network and is being streamed on Fubo. In the UK, the match will be broadcast live on Eurosport. It will also be available for users on the Discovery+ app.
Full worldwide broadcast details here.
Where and when will Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner semi-final match take place?
The match will be held at the Rod Laver Arena on January 30 (Friday). It is scheduled to begin at 7:30 pm local time and 2:30 pm IST in India.
What is the head-to-head record between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner?
They have clashed 10 times on tour previously, with Sinner leading with 10 victories while Djokovic has won on just four occasions.
Has Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner met at the Australian Open previously?
Their only previous Australian Open meeting came in 2024. It was a semi-final round match which Sinner won by 6-1, 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-3.
What happened in the most recent meeting between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner?
Sinner and Djokovic last clashed at Wimbledon once again in the semi-final round, with Sinner coming out victorious in straight sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-4).
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Aniruddh Seshadri Iyer is a passionate sports journalist at Khel Now, specializing in tennis and Olympic sports. An engineer by training, he found his storytelling passion through iconic Grand Slam and Olympic moments. Known for sharp analysis and insightful coverage, he draws inspiration from Novak Djokovic’s resilience. Outside journalism, he enjoys reading, traveling, and playing the guitar.