Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Italian Open 2025

Pegula and Mertens are slated to meet for the first time in Rome. 

Jessica Pegula secured a comfortable 6-4, 6-2 second-round win over compatriot Ashlyn Krueger and stretched her lead over the 21-year-old Krueger to 5-0. The 90-minute win over the unseeded Krueger sets up a third-round match against Elise Mertens.

Kruger, ranked No. 37 in the WTA Rankings, kept pace with Pegula mostly, but converting only one of five breakpoints on offer let her down. Being unable to hold serve let Pegula off the hook. Krueger will rue the four games she lost as it hastened her defeat. 

Mertens chalked up her 20th win of the season after overcoming an opening set deficit to win 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 in two hours and 22 minutes. Both players were unable to stem the flow of double faults, with Mertens accounting for seven and Lamens recording 6. While Mertens compensated with six aces, Lamens would serve just a solitary ace. 

Match Details

• Tournament: Italian Open 2025 Women’s Singles
• Round: Third round
• Date: May 11
• Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Pegula is an impressive 18-2, including her title runs in Austin and Charleston. Leading up to her Charleston Open title run, she made the finals in Miami but lost to Aryna Sabalenka. Mertens picked up the Singapore Open title in February, her win at the WTA 250 event, the first since winning the 2023 Jasmin Open in Tunisia. 

Players like Jasmine Paolini, Jelena Ostapenko, and Diana Shnaider, who pose a significant hurdle for her, could face her in the quarterfinal. Defending champion Iga Swiatek is waiting in the wings for a semi-final face-off. Even though the Pole is short of a title or two, she is playing on her favourite surface and cannot be counted out.  

Form

• Jessica Pegula: W-L-W-L-W
• Elise Mertens: W-L-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Jessica Pegula: 1
• Elise Mertens: 3

Stats

Jessica Pegula: 

• Pegula has a 28-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Pegula has a 5-3 win-loss record in Rome.
• Pegula has won 64% of matches played on clay courts.

Elise Mertens:

• Mertens has a 20-9 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Mertens has a 5-5 win-loss record in Rome.
• Mertens has won 65% of matches played on clay courts.

Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Pegula -200, Mertens +172.
• Spread: Pegula -3.5 (-108), Mertens +3.5 (-112). 
• Total games: Over 20.5 (-130), Under 21.5 (-118).

Match Prediction

Mertens was the first to make the quarter-finals in Rome in 2020. Pegula made her last eight debut at this venue a year later. Elise Mertens was ranked No. 20 at that stage, while Pegula was No. 31. The American had lost all three matches played to Mertens before they met in Melbourne in January. Pegula defeated Mertens to secure her first win against the Belgian on that occasion.

While Rome is far from being a regular stop for Pegula, she has been the more consistent performer this season. With her maiden clay-court title at Charleston behind her, Pegula will be the one to cross the finish line against Mertens. 

Result: Pegula will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch the live telecast and live streaming of Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens’ third-round match at the Italian Open 2025?

The third-round match between Jessica Pegula and Elise Mertens at the Italian Open 2025 will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

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