Top five title favourites in women's singles at US Open 2024

Coco Gauff not at her best as she attempts to retain the US Open 2024 crown.

When 19-year-old Coco Gauff lifted the US Open trophy last season, she became the youngest American woman to win the title since Serena Williams. A year later, she stands as an example of the unpredictable nature of sports in the lead-up to the most volatile of Grand Slams.

Looking back at the past decade of the US Open, nine different women have won at Flushing Meadows. Only Naomi Osaka, with victories in 2018 and 2020, has been a repeat winner since 2014. Flavia Pennetta (2015), Sloane Stephens (2017), and Bianca Andreescu (2019) were all surprise champions in the past decade. Perhaps the biggest shock came when Britain’s Emma Raducanu became the first qualifier to win a Grand Slam singles title with her 2021 victory.

In US Open 2024, the standout contenders remain the top four players on the WTA Tour: 2022 US Open winner Iga Swiatek, defending champion Coco Gauff, two-time Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka, and former Wimbledon titleholder Elena Rybakina. Jessica Pegula is also a strong contender after winning her second straight Canadian Open trophy less than two weeks ago.

Additionally, 2024 Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova, along with Paula Badosa, Marie Bouzkova, and Amanda Anisimova, have been prominent among unseeded players during this summer’s hard court season. Badosa and Bouzkova clashed in the finals at Washington, while Anisimova reached the finals in Toronto.

Amidst all the uncertainty, the US Open is set for potential upsets. If recent history is any indication, we could see a new name on the trophy to close the Grand Slam season, even as the top players aim to reclaim their spotlight.

5. Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula has consistently performed at Grand Slams and has made the last eight at all four majors. Pegula peaked at the right time in the ongoing season when she became the first player since Simona Halep in 2018 to make the finals in Canada and Cincinnati in the same year. By lifting the trophy for the second year in a row in Canada, Pegula has emulated her idol, Martina Hingis. Hingis was the last woman to win the Canadian Open consecutively in 1999 and 2000.

Pegula continues her stint in the WTA Top 10 that began halfway through the 2022 season. With six hard-court singles titles in the bag, she has as much momentum as any WTA player heading into the Flushing Meadows fortnight.

4. Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina’s strong baseline game and strong serve make her a worthy contender for the US Open trophy. The Kazakh has proved her mettle with hard-court wins at Brisbane and Abu Dhabi, besides reaching the title rounds at Doha and Miami.

The 2024 season has been a mixed bag for the World No. 4 as she has been plagued by gastrointestinal issues all season, leading to her withdrawals at Dubai, Rome – where she was the defending champion and Indian Wells. She recouped after retiring at the ecotrans Ladies Open in Berlin to make a semi-final run at Wimbledon, only to make a second-round exit to Leylah Fernandez at Cincinnati. 

Rybakina’s ability to dictate points in the fast conditions at the US Open, complimented by her aggressive playing style, will be key to going far. Her status as one of the favourites will be undiminished as she looks to add another Grand Slam title to her resume. Despite her setbacks, Rybakina (40-9) is the only player, along with Swiatek (50-6), to restrict their losses this season to single digits among the top five.

3. Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff is tasked with defending her US Open title and arrives in New York with a rollercoaster season of highs and lows, raising questions about her current form. Gauff reached the Olympics quarter-finals, but early exits at the US Open warm-up events at Toronto and Cincinnati means she will have to work on her confidence ahead of the main draw beginning in the coming week.

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka questions ‘unfair’ pay-gap between male and female players after Cincinnati Open win

Gauff can bank on her familiarity with the playing conditions and the home crowd support to provide the much-needed boost she needs. The American will be looking for a reset and an end-of-the-season surge in her quest for a second tour-level title since defending her ASB Classic title in January.

Another early exit by Gauff will affect her ranking in the PIF Race to the WTA Finals, where she is currently in the fifth position. She stands to lose a chunk of points if she does not make a deep run at Flushing Meadows, but cannot afford to let the pressure get to her.

2. Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek remains a strong favourite despite her recent setbacks. The 2022 title winner underlined her dominance this season with a third consecutive French Open title and a bronze medal at the Olympics. Her strong showing on clay courts carried over to the hard court season when she won WTA 1000 events at Doha and Indian Wells in the first half of the season. The World No. 1 has already qualified for the year-ending WTA Finals.

Also Read: Iga Swiatek’s projected path to US Open 2024 final

Her unexpected exits at Wimbledon and in the semi-final at the Olympics reveal her vulnerable side. But Swiatek’s ability to bounce back makes her a player to watch at the season’s year-ending Grand Slam. Swiatek was vocal about the crowded tennis calendar just before her semi-final loss to Aryna Sabalenka. The loss could be a silver lining and give her that extra bit of time to recoup ahead of the upcoming main draw in New York.

1. Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka has returned to the winner’s circle after seven months at the WTA 1000 Cincinnati Open earlier this week. She clinched the singles title without dropping a set and snapped Jessica Pegula’s nine-match winning streak in the final. It is Sabalenka’s first trophy since defending her Australian Open crown in January.

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to US Open 2024 final

Aryna Sabalenka will enter the US Open on a confident note after a shoulder injury forced her to withdraw from Wimbledon. Sabalenka will have the momentum on her side after her resurgence in Cincinnati, where she notched up three top-20 victories, including against Iga Swiatek in the last four.

Winning the Cincinnati Open means Sabalenka renews her tussle with Swiatek for the No. 1 position. Sabalenka’s sixth WTA 1000 title gave her back the No. 2 spot in the WTA rankings, the position she occupied until May this year. Since making the last four in 2021 and 2022 in New York, Sabalenka went a step further last year but lost a three-set final to Coco Gauff.

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