Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to US Open 2024 final

Last year’s finalists, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka, share space in the same half of the singles draw.

Aryna Sabalenka, the second seed at US Open 2024, will be well-rested after a mid-season break. Winning the tune-up event in Cincinnati Open will leave her confident of going one up on the runner-up status from last year’s US Open.

The 26-year-old has had her share of fitness issues this season. A lower back injury and an illness spoilt her chances at the French Open, and a shoulder injury forced her to skip Wimbledon. Sabalenka decided to sit out the Paris Olympics 2024 in preparation for the hard-court season. It looks like that decision will have a positive fallout for the World No. 2.

The Cincinnati Open title was Sabalenka’s first since winning the Australian Open in January. The World No. #2 overcame Jessica Pegula in straight sets to return to the winner’s circle for only the second time this season.

Sabalenka made the finals at Madrid and Rome only to lose to Iga Swiatek both times. The loss at Madrid will have hurt more, as she could not make it past the finish line despite giving herself two championship points in the decider.

Sabalenka’s fortnight at Flushing Meadows is likely to see a third-round meeting with Ekaterina Alexandrova, a fourth-round face-off with Madison Keys, and run-ins with Qinwen Zheng and Coco Gauff in the quarters and semis before would be an eagerly anticipated summit clash with Iga Swiatek.

Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to US Open 2024 final

First Round: Priscilla Hon

Sabalenka will begin her quest for her first ever US Open crown against Australian qualifier Priscilla Hon. The 205th ranked Hon and Sabalenka have crossed paths only once before on tour in 2017 in Bombay, with the Brisbane native being brushed aside in straight sets by the World No. 2.

With Hon largely active on the ITF Circuit and yet to make a significant impact in the WTA Tour, Sabalenka could not have asked for a better opening round match and should breeze through to the second week when the real challenge lies. 

Also Read: Iga Swiatek’s projected path to US Open 2024 final

Second Round: Lulu Sun

Sabalenka’s second-round challenger could be 23-year-old New Zealander and the 2024 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Lulu Sun. The Kiwi took out 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu in the fourth round at SW19 after coming through qualifying. Her best Grand Slam result on her Wimbledon debut could send her into her first-ever showdown with Sabalenka.

Though she lost in the last eight in London to Donna Vekic, she took the World No. #35 the full distance after winning the opening set. Currently ranked No. #57, Sun broke into the WTA Top 100 after her quarter-final run at Wimbledon.

Third Round: Ekaterina Alexandrova

Sabalenka holds a 3-3 record against Ekaterina Alexandrova, with their most recent meeting coming at Wimbledon last year, which was won by the Belarusian. Alexandrova, who is Russian, has two semi-final appearances in 2024, one in Miami and the other in the Netherlands. 

On the hard courts of Miami, Alexandrova got the better of two top five players, Iga Swiatek (1) and Jessica Pegula (5), before running into eventual winner Danielle Collins in the last four.

Fourth Round: Madison Keys

The 14th seed Madison Keys is the first of two Americans that Sabalenka could run into during her visit to New York. The World No. #2 enjoys a 3-1 lead after besting Keys in last year’s US Open semi-finals. This year, they are seeded to meet in the fourth round.

Madison Keys halted a runaway Danielle Collins in her tracks about a month after Collins completed the Charleston-Miami double. Keys defeated compatriot Collins in the Strasbourg Open finals in straight sets.

Quarterfinal: Qinwen Zheng

China’s Qinwen Zheng became a household name after winning the gold medal at the recently concluded Paris Olympics. While Zheng may trail Sabalenka 0-2 in their career head-to-head, becoming the first Chinese player to win a tennis singles gold medal at the Olympics will be cause for optimism as she looks likely to take on Sabalenka in the quarter-final round.

Zheng broke into the WTA Top 10 after her final run at Melbourne and has remained there since making her Grand Slam final debut in January. She also defended her Palermo Ladies Open title as a wildcard entry just ahead of the Paris Olympics, making her the first to bag two straight titles at Palermo since Spaniard Anabel Medina Garrigues. 

Semifinal: Coco Gauff

Should Sabalenka reach the last four at Flushing Meadows, a rematch for this year’s Australian Open semi-final awaits. Last season’s loss to Gauff in the US Open title round will be fresh in Sabalenka’s mind if the face-off between the two players becomes a reality.

Gauff, who became the first American to win the US Open singles title since 2017, gave up the No. #2 position in the WTA rankings to Sabalenka after her second-round exit at Cincinnati. Gauff was the defending champion at Cincinnati and now faces the added pressure of proving last season’s win was no flash in the pan.

The 20-year-old American has reached the semi-final stage on five occasions this season but only a solitary win at Auckland to show for it. Gauff kicks off her title defence against Frenchwoman Varvara Gracheva.

Final: Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek has been the player to beat this year after having won five tour-level titles and her third straight French Open title. The Pole is 5-0 in WTA finals this season and is the US Open 2022 champion. A clash between the two top-ranked WTA players, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. will be on everyone’s radar.

Despite Sabalenka trailing Swiatek 8-4 in their head-to-head, the Belarusian is likely to fare better at Flushing Meadows, having reached the semi-final stage here three years on the trot. The duo are tied 3-3 in their meetings on hard courts, including their most recent match at Cincinnati, where Sabalenka won to even their score on asphalt.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram