The contrarian approach: How to bet against the public

Betting against the public, also known as the contrarian approach, is a strategy where bettors place their wagers against the majority’s opinion. This strategy typically involves selecting the less favoured teams or players, going against what the public believes will happen. 

The benefits of betting against the public are clear for those who seek value. Since public opinion influences betting lines, contrarian bettors often find opportunities to bet on undervalued teams or players. These bettors aren’t swayed by hype or emotion but rely on data, trends, and deeper analysis.  

Here’s how to apply this strategy through different betting methods against the public.

Fading the Public

Fading the public is a strategy where bettors wager against heavily favoured teams or players when most public sentiment is overwhelmingly one-sided. This approach is effective in scenarios where casual bettors inflate the betting lines for popular teams, often leading to overvalued odds.  

An example of this strategy can be seen in online casinos. Let’s say someone is playing a game in a casino online in NZ; if other players from different countries heavily back popular games and skew the odds, the Kiwi player may find better value in less popular games with more favourable odds.

As noticed, fading the public allows bettors to leverage inflated odds and find value in less popular options. This approach often helps contrarian bettors gain an edge over casual bettors who follow the crowd. Going against public opinion can open up opportunities for better odds and more profitable outcomes, especially in heavily bet markets.

Reverse Line Movement

Reverse line movement refers to a phenomenon where the betting line moves against most public bets. When sportsbooks receive a significant amount of bets on one side but shift the line in favour of the other side, it often indicates sharp money (from professional bettors) is on the opposite side.  

For example, suppose a team is initially favoured by three points in a basketball game, but the line moves to only one point despite most public bets being on that team. This movement could signal that professional bettors place large bets on the opposing team. Recognising and understanding reverse line movement can help you identify these moments and place a bet on the underdog.

To sum up, following reverse line movement allows bettors to bet in line with the professionals, who often have deeper insights into games than the general public. Instead of following the masses, you can use this strategy to capitalise on the smarter money, which may give you a better chance of winning.

Value Betting on Underdogs

Value betting is the core principle of contrarian betting. It focuses on finding bets where the odds are higher than they should be based on the actual likelihood of the outcome. This is an excellent opportunity since, in many cases, the public overestimates the chances of favourites, making underdogs more valuable. 

For instance, the public might emotionally favour a well-known star player in tennis. However, the lesser-known opponent may have better odds, creating value betting opportunities. This often occurs in sports like tennis, where emotional betting plays a significant role in skewing the odds favouring famous players.

The advantage of value betting on underdogs is that it allows you to take advantage of mispriced odds. When you can spot these opportunities, it opens the door to profitable betting situations that the general public may miss. It also helps you avoid betting based on emotions and focus instead on where the real value lies.

Contrarian Parlay Bets

Contrarian parlay betting involves combining multiple contrarian bets into a single wager. This strategy can amplify profits because you combine several bets against public sentiment. Parlay bets can be risky but offer higher rewards when successful, especially when paired with a contrarian approach. 

An example of a contrarian parlay bet could involve selecting three NFL games in which the public heavily backs one side. Based on key metrics and deeper analysis, you might bet on the opposite side in all three games, creating a parlay that combines contrarian choices. If all three underdogs perform as expected, the parlay could result in significant returns.

In brief, contrarian parlay bets present a high-reward strategy by combining multiple bets against the majority’s predictions. While these bets carry more risk, the upside is that a successful parlay can produce high rewards. Parlay bets also allow you to spread risk across multiple games while maintaining a contrarian edge.

In-Play Betting Opportunities

In-play or in-game betting, also known as live betting, offers another chance to apply contrarian strategies. During live games, public reactions often become exaggerated, creating opportunities for savvy bettors. The public might overreact to early-game events, such as a favoured team falling behind. This panic can shift the odds, creating more favourable lines for betting on the favoured team to make a comeback.

For example, in a Premier League match, if a highly favoured team falls behind early, the public might start placing heavy bets on the underdog. This overreaction can create a more advantageous line for betting on the favoured team to recover and win. 

The advantage of in-play betting with a contrarian approach is that it allows you to react to real-time events and take advantage of market shifts. It provides the flexibility to adjust your bets as the game progresses, making it a dynamic and potentially profitable strategy for those prepared to act quickly.

Final Thoughts

Betting against the public is an effective strategy for those who want to capitalise on inflated odds and find value in overlooked bets. This approach is particularly beneficial for more experienced bettors who understand how to read the market and spot opportunities the public misses. However, this post provides only a general overview of the contrarian approach. If you’re interested in learning more or have specific questions, it’s always best to continue reading or seek professional guidance to fine-tune your strategy.