Can India still qualify for FIBA Asia Cup 2025 knockouts? Check scenario

India must beat Saudi Arabia in their final group C match to stay alive in contention at the FIBA Asia Cup 2025.

India remains winless in their FIBA Asia Cup 2025 campaign after two tough defeats in Group C. But while the hopes are slim, the door to qualification for quarterfinals is still open, and the Indian cagers still have a fighting chance.

The Indian men’s basketball team’s opening game saw them clash with Jordan at the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah. Despite a brave show that saw India level the scores 80-80 in regulation time, they fell short in overtime.

Led by Dar Tucker and Hashem Abbas, Jordan closed out the match 91-84 as India’s Muin Bek Hafeez and Harsh Dagar’s efforts went in vain. The second fixture was even more challenging, as India faced Asian basketball powerhouse China.

The Men in Blue couldn’t keep up with China’s pace and accuracy, ultimately suffering a 69-100 defeat and denting their hopes for a quarterfinal spot. China dominated early, leading 20-8 before extending the advantage to 29-14 by the end of the first quarter. Hu Mingxuan led the charge for China with 17 points, shooting 5-of-8 from the field.

As things stand, India sit third in Group C with 0 wins and 2 losses. China leads the group with 4 points after back-to-back wins over Saudi Arabia and India, virtually securing their spot in the knockouts. Jordan is second with 2 points from one win (against India) and two games remaining.

FIBA Asia Cup 2025 qualification scenarios

Only the top team from each group qualifies directly for the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 knockout stage. The second and third-placed teams advance to a final qualifying, the winner of which books a spot in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, the bottom team in each group is eliminated.

India's chances of making the quarter-finals took a heavy dent after the big defeat to China in #FIBAAsiaCup2025. 🇮🇳Match Report 👇#Basketball https://t.co/DOTeKrogx0

— Khel Now (@KhelNow) August 7, 2025

India now have just one group match left, against Saudi Arabia, and they will have to win this match to remain in the competition.

If India defeats Saudi Arabia, they will finish with a 1-2 record and 3 points. However, for India to progress to the final qualification round, they will also need Saudi Arabia to lose its other two matches (against China and Jordan).

Saudi Arabia, then finishing with 0 wins and 3 losses, will end at the bottom of the table.

Also Read: ‘Inexperience cost us’: Pranav Prince, Muin Bek Hafeez reflect on heartbreaking loss to Jordan in FIBA Asia Cup 2025

This scenario would leave India in third place, sending them into the final qualification round against Jordan or China.

Meanwhile, with the loss already made, India can no longer top the group. But by beating Saudi Arabia, they can avoid elimination and stay in the qualification race.

Now, all eyes are on India’s final group match against the hosts, set to take place on August 9 at 6:00 PM IST.

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