How can Australia qualify for semi-finals of ICC T20 World Cup 2024 after loss vs Afghanistan?

Australia suffered a major upset at the hands of Afghanistan in their Super 8 clash.

Match number 48 of the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 saw one of the biggest upsets in the history of the competition as Afghanistan defeated Australia for the first time in international cricket.

The Mitchell Marsh-led side went down to Rashid Khan’s team by 21 runs at the Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown, St Vincent on Saturday night.

Not only has this loss snapped Australia’s undefeated run in the tournament but has put the 2021 T20 world champions in virtually a must-win position against India in their last Super 8 game.

They had defeated Bangladesh by 28 runs (DLS) in their first Super 8 match. With India defeating Bangladesh and Afghanistan, a victory over Afghanistan would have confirmed a semi-final berth for Marsh’s team. However, a loss now has opened up possibilities for Afghanistan to reach the semi-final as they face Bangladesh in their last Super 8 match.

India sit at the top of the Group 1 standings with a healthy net run rate of +2.425. The Asian giants have a foot in the semis and they just need to avoid a big defeat against the Aussies. Australia are slotted second with one win and one loss and an NRR of +0.223. Afghanistan are third with also with one victory and a loss, and an NRR of -0.650. At the bottom of this group are Bangladesh, who are all but out of the semi-final race with two losses.

The two matches left in Group 1 are IND vs AUS (match number 51) and AFG vs BAN (match number 52) on June 24. Afghanistan will have the advantage of knowing the exact scenario based on the result of IND vs AUS.

Australia’s semi-final qualification scenario in T20 World Cup 2024:

If Australia defeat India and Afghanistan lose to Bangladesh, then Marsh’s team will go into the semi-finals with no NRR complexity. If Australia lose to India and Afghanistan defeat Bangladesh, then the Aussies will be knocked out.

If Australia and Afghanistan both win their last Super 8 match, then it will be down to their net run rates. One way for Australia to seal their semi-final spot, without worrying about the AFG vs BAN result, will be to defeat India by a huge margin so that their NRR surpasses India’s. Then India will be under the threat of Afghanistan.

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