Premier League 2022-23: Odds of clubs finishing in top four

The race for the Champions League spots is heating up in the English top flight

With the Premier League title race being fought between league leaders Arsenal at 72 points after 29 matches & defending champions Manchester City at 64 points after 28 games, we take a look at which are the teams who can take the next two spots for the Champions League berth next season, in the remaining Premier League fixtures.

Here are the Odds of clubs finishing in the Top four in the Premier League 2022-23 season:

Manchester United (75% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 5th, 50 points.

With the appointment of Dutch manager Eric Ten Hag, Manchester United seemed to have turned the corner in the summer. The former Ajax boss went on to sign key players such as Lisandro Martinez & Casemiro, as they've put in a strong set of performances, particularly with wins against rivals Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City & Liverpool. Manchester United also ended their seven-year trophy drought with a Carabao Cup trophy win, overcoming Newcastle United in the final. 

However, they've recently hit a slump after losing 7-0 away from home against bitter rivals Liverpool and somewhat stopped their upward momentum, where they'd been locked in the 3rd spot for quite some time. Currently in 5th spot, jointly shared with Newcastle & Tottenham, & behind on goal difference, on 50 points after 28 matches, having dropped down after a 2-0 loss at the weekend to Newcastle United. They have the third easiest schedule remaining in the league & a 75% chance of making it to the Top 4 & the crucial tie against Tottenham on April 27th could be a decider.

Remaining Premier League fixtures: Brentford (H), Everton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Chelsea (H), Tottenham (A), Aston Villa (H), Brighton (A), West Ham (A), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Fulham (H).

Newcastle United (67% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 3rd, 50 points

Similar to Brighton, Newcastle United have had a great season ever since Eddie Howe's appointment in November 2021. He steered them clear of relegation to 11th place. This season, they've exceeded expectations with a European spot in the targets now. Having made smart signings of Kieran Trippier & Sven Botman, Newcastle have the best defensive record in the Premier League this season, conceding 19 of 27 games.

They stamped themselves firmly as one of the favourites for the Top 4 spot as they beat a fellow contending Manchester United side 2-0 at the weekend & currently sitting in the third spot with 50 points ahead of Tottenham & Manchester United on goal difference. They have a relatively tough final few games coming with Top 6 sides Spurs, Brighton and Arsenal to visit St.James Park, while also travelling away to Chelsea & Aston Villa.

Remaining Premier League fixtures: West Ham (A), Brentford (A), Aston Villa (A), Tottenham (H), Everton (A), Southampton (H), Arsenal (H), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Chelsea (A), Brighton (H – TBD).

Tottenham Hotspur (35% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 4th, 50 points

After finishing 4th last season under Antonio Conte's leadership last season, Tottenham were expected to mount a title challenge this year, They looked the part as well after starting unbeaten in the first seven games. However, the North London derby loss in October lead to a rapid decline with exits from all cup competitions as well the Champions League.

Antonio Conte grew frustrated as not being backed with the players he needed to refresh the squad and his side also played some dire performances, despite getting the necessary results to stay in the Top 4 race. He recently left the post after a 3-3 draw against Southampton & leaving his assistant Cristian Stellini and Ryan Mason to take charge in the rest of the 9 fixtures left.

They have big matches coming up against Man United, Brighton, Newcastle and Liverpool who're all fighting amongst each other for the two spots in the Top 4 race.

Remaining Premier League fixtures: Brighton (H), Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H), Liverpool (A), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H), Leeds (A)

Liverpool (23% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 8th, 50 points

From the high of almost winning a quadruple last season, Liverpool have fallen off a cliff this season, with new players struggling such as Darwin Nunez and Coady Gakpo struggling to fit into a well-established system, as well as established veteran players (eg. Van Dijk, Fabinho) not performing to their usual high standards.

Their inconsistent form has them currently reeling at 8th position and seven points off the Top 4 spot & 10 games left. They've exited all the cup competitions this year, & their hopes of making the top 4 look increasingly a tougher task with Arsenal & Tottenham still left to visit them at home.

Remaining fixtures: Arsenal (H), Leeds (A), Nottingham Forest (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H), Brentford (H), Leicester (A), Aston Villa (H), Southampton (A).

Brighton (15% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 6th, 46 points

Brighton have arguably played the most attractive brand of football seen in the Premier League this season. Whether, it was under former manager Graham Potter or his successor & highly acclaimed currently, Roberto De Zerbi, the Seagulls have managed to find the goals they usually missed out on the previous season.

The addition of Kairo Mitoma has been a key factor in that, where's he's been involved in 11 goals of the last 15 appearances. Currently, on 46 points with a couple of games in hand with 27 played, Brighton has an exceptional opportunity to reach the Top 4 stage, with a relatively difficult fixture list( away to Newcastle, Arsenal and Tottenham, while hosting Man City and Man United).

Remaining fixtures: Tottenham (A), Chelsea (A), Manchester City (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H), Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Southampton (H), Aston Villa (A), Newcastle (A – TBD)

Aston Villa (1.0% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 7th, 44 points

Since the appointment of Unai Emery, Aston Villa have accumulated the most points(32) in the league after league leaders Arsenal(41) & Manchester City(35). They're currently on a six-game unbeaten run, which included an upset victory over an ambitious and struggling Chelsea side at Stamford Bridge.

The remarkable transformation of Aston Villa is there for everyone to see where Unai Emery has managed to win 16 out of possible 21 points away from home, as well as notching 9 wins (3rd best) after Arsenal(12) & Manchester City(10), since taking over at Villa. However, they have the second hardest remaining fixtures, despite being 6 points away from a Top 4 spot & return to the EUFA Europa or Conference league, which would be a more realistic target to achieve.

Remaining fixtures: Nottingham Forest (H), Newcastle (H), Brentford (A), Fulham (H), Manchester United (A), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Liverpool(A), Brighton(H)

Brentford (0.7% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 9th, 43 points

Brentford & Thomas Frank have been amongst the surprise packages in the Premier League given their low budget & few star names beside Ivan Toney to brag about. However, despite being touted for a lower-half finish, they've managed to exceed the supporters' expectations, if not their own, & exceed it, given they're still in the reckoning for European places, & currently only a point away from a Europa Conference League spot. However, they've arguably the toughest fixture list in the remaining 10 fixtures, & a chance of making the Top 4 is highly unlikely, with matches against all top 7 seven sides in April & May.

Remaining fixtures: Manchester United (A), Newcastle (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa(H), Chelsea(A), Nottingham Forest(H), Liverpool(A), West Ham(H), Tottenham(A), Manchester City(H)

Chelsea (0.5% odds of making the Top 4), Current Position: 11th, 39 points

It has been a season of transition, uncertainty & a couple of managers changes for Chelsea. Since taking over from the previously successful owner Roman Abramovich, the Chelsea supporters expected the success & stability to continue under manager Thomas Tuchel. However, he was sacked after a not-so-strong start to the league campaign, in September 2022, with Chelsea in 6th spot.

He was replaced by Graham Potter who was highly rated at Brighton at the time, & was brought in for a fee of 20M paid to his former club. But contrary to expectations, Potter was sacked after a 2-0 loss against Aston Villa over the weekend. He managed to win 12 of his 31 games in charge in all competitions and managed 1.27 points per game in the Premier League - the joint-lowest of any manager to take charge of 20 or more games for Chelsea in the Premier League.

Now the replacement manager will have a huge task at hand to take them to a Top 4 finish(11 points behind) & with the fourth most difficult fixture list at hand.

Remaining fixtures: Brighton (H), Manchester United (A), Brentford (H), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Manchester City (A), Newcastle (H)