ISL 2025-26: Title scenario explained as Indian Super League enters final stretch

East Bengal FC are the current table toppers of ISL 2025-26

The Indian Super League (ISL) 2025-26 enters its final stretch. With only 12 matches to go, the title race is getting very tight. This season due to the shorter format, the league phase has changed, there will be no playoffs this time.

The table toppers at the end of the 13th Matchweek will lift the ISL title and further qualify to play in Asia at the continental stage representing India. So, the importance of every match is very important.

As the league approaches its deciding phase, there are 2-3 teams who are very much in contention for the ISL glory. Let us take a look at the scenarios for the ISL 2025-26 title race.

The Favourites

Mohun Bagan SG

Mohun Bagan Super Giant are currently sitting comfortably at the 2nd spot in ISL points table with 21 points from 10 matches, having won 6, drawn 3, and lost just once. Their performance so far has given them a comfortable cushion over the other teams and also, they have couple of games in hand which make them the clear favourites.

At this stage, the only team that could realistically challenge them are the other Kolkata Giant, East Bengal FC but they also dropped crucial points against Punjab FC and even then, it would require a significant drop in Mohun Bagan SG’s form, something that hasn’t looked likely this season.

If Mohun Bagan SG go on to win all their remaining matches, they would finish on 30 points. Even with a slip-up or two, they are still expected to end the campaign around the 28 points mark, which should be more than enough to keep them in control of the title race.

There is, however, an interesting situation. Due to their AFC competition ban, even if they win the league, the second-placed team will earn the continental qualification spot. This makes the battle behind them just as intriguing.

One match that will now decide the title fate is the iconic Kolkata Derby against East Bengal FC. The “Boro Match” could prove decisive not just for pride, but potentially in confirming Mohun Bagan SG’s title triumph.

All things considered, Mohun Bagan SG look like clear favourites at this point, with well over a 95% chance of reclaiming the ISL title if they maintain their current form.

East Bengal FC

At one point in the season, many questioned whether East Bengal FC could truly stay in the ISL title race despite consistently putting in strong performances and climbing up the table. However, their momentum has now taken a slight hit after dropping two crucial points against Punjab FC.

The result leaves East Bengal just one point ahead of Mohun Bagan SG, while also having played one game more than the Mariners. With only two matches left in their campaign, the equation is now simple for the Red & Gold Brigade, they will likely need to win both remaining games to keep their title hopes firmly in their own hands.

Currently placed 1st with 22 points from 11 matches, East Bengal have won 6, drawn 4, and lost just once so far.

If they manage to win all of their remaining two matches, they would add 6 more points to their tally and finish the season on 28 points. If this happens it would likely mean that this includes a victory over Mohun Bagan Super Giant, which would directly impact the ISL title race.

In that case, Mohun Bagan SG could be restricted to 27 points, handing East Bengal the title by the smallest of margins.

It’s a storyline that would be nothing short of unforgettable, a potential title decided in the Kolkata Derby, with East Bengal completing a remarkable late push to the top. These two sides are among the few who still have their fate firmly in their own hands.

With that being said, the road ahead is not so easy. East Bengal still have to face strong opponents. Going through these two matches without dropping points will be a real challenge.

All things considered, East Bengal have a genuine shot at the title, but after recently dropping points against Punjab FC, their chances can be placed at around 80%.

Still in contention

Jamshedpur FC

Jamshedpur FC are in a position very similar to FC Goa and Bengaluru FC in the title race. They currently have 21 points from 12 matches, which keeps them in contention but leaves very little room for slip-ups.

With one matche remaining, the maximum they can reach is 24 points. While that still keeps them mathematically alive, it makes their title hopes extremely difficult and almost impossible.

Like the other teams in this bracket, Jamshedpur FC will need to win their remaining game and also rely heavily on results elsewhere going in their favour especially involving the teams above them.

It’s a very tough path from here, so there chances likely are around the 40% mark given their dependence on multiple factors.

FC Goa

FC Goa are currently placed 5th in the ISL points table with 20 points from 12 matches. The Gaurs are still in the race for the title, but things do not look good.

With one match still to play, a perfect run would take them to a maximum of 23 points. While that keeps them mathematically in the title race, it may not be enough to guarantee the top spot.

As a result, they will need favourable results from other fixtures particularly involving the teams above them to stay in contention.

While the possibility of a title push remains alive, it is a difficult path for the Gaurs. Their chances can be placed at around 25%, given their reliance on other results and a near-perfect finish to the season.

Mumbai City FC

Mumbai City FC have had to go through a challenging season, especially after an off-season problem that saw the City Football Group step away from ownership due to the uncertainty involving ISL, along with several key foreign player departures. Given these circumstances, their campaign so far has been impressive.

Led by head coach Petr Kratky, the Islanders currently sit 7th in the table with 19 points from 11 matches, having won 5, drawn 4, and lost 2. They were favourites at one point of time, but now due to a bad run they are not very much in contention and depend on others for the result.

However, a slight drop in recent performances has seen them fall just behind in the race

All things considered, after their loss to East Bengal FC, Mumbai City FC are no longer strong contenders. So, it’s a 50-50 chance in their case

Punjab FC

Punjab FC still have a couple of games in hand and sit on 19 points from 11 matches, which gives them a slight mathematical chance to climb higher up the table perhaps even push towards the top four if results go their way.

However, when it comes to the title race, they might still pull it off if they win the last 2 matches, they end up at 25 points but will have to rely on other results. While there remains a faint light of hope in terms of improving their overall standing, their chances of competing for the ISL 2025–26 title are 50-50, but they are still in contention keeping in mind the game advantage.

Bengaluru FC

Bengaluru FC find themselves in a situation which is tough to recover from. They are currently on 20 points from 12 matches, keeping them almost out of the race but still not mathematically out similar to FC Goa.

With one game remaining, the maximum they can achieve is 23 points. While that technically keeps them in the title race, it puts them at a disadvantage compared to the teams above them.

Much like others, Bengaluru FC are heavily dependent on results elsewhere going in their favour, in addition to winning all of their remaining matches something that is easier said than done.

Their path to the title looks challenging, and their chances are around 25% keeping in mind the circumstances.

Almost no chance

Inter Kashi FC

Inter Kashi are currently placed 10th on the table, with 11 points from 10 matches. While their position keeps them within touching distance of the mid-table pack, the reality is that their chances in the ISL 2025–26 title race look extremely slim at this stage.

The gap to the top is vast, and it is most certainly impossible for them to compete for the ISL title.

However, in what is their debut season in the league, Inter Kashi have shown glimpses of a promising and attractive brand of football. There have been encouraging signs in their performances, suggesting that the team has a solid foundation to build on.

Kerala Blasters FC

Kerala Blasters FC are most certainly out of the ISL 2025–26 title race, with their poor start to the season leaving them too far behind the frontrunners to realistically get back into contention.

Even though their recent resurgence has seen them climb to 8th in the table, the gap at the top makes it almost impossible for them to enter the title conversation at this stage.

However, the mid-season arrival of Ashley Westwood has completely changed the trajectory of their campaign.

Chennaiyin FC

Chennaiyin FC were one of the most talked-about teams at the start of the season, especially after an active transfer window where they brought in experienced ISL foreign signings and looked well-equipped on paper. There was genuine expectation that they could be strong contenders in the ISL 2025–26 title race.

However, their campaign has fallen well short of those expectations. With just 9 points from 12 matches, they currently sit 13th on the table, and their inconsistent performances have left them far behind the leading pack.

At this stage, the gap is simply too big to cover, and Chennaiyin FC have no chance of entering the title race, making their season a major disappointment despite the early promise.

Sporting Club Delhi

Sporting Club Delhi, the rebranded side from Hyderabad FC, have shown a few positive glimpses this season but have lacked the consistency needed to compete.

Sitting 11th with 10 points from 11 matches, they are effectively out of the ISL 2025–26 title race, with the gap to the top already too big to bridge.

NorthEast United FC

NorthEast United FC, two-time Durand Cup winners under Juan Pedro Benali, looked to be building a strong project in recent seasons, but this campaign has seen that momentum fade. However, the Highlanders have seemed to gain some momentum and would like to end their campaign on a positive note.

Missing key players from last year has clearly affected their performances, and they now sit 9th with 13 points from 12 matches. As a result, they have never really been in the ISL 2025–26 title race and are effectively out of contention.

Odisha FC

Odisha FC came into the season with very little expectation after a difficult phase, but they have managed to show some resilience and pull themselves slightly away from the relegation zone.

Despite that improvement, their overall campaign remains underwhelming, with just 10 points from 11 matches. Given the gap to the top, they are firmly out of the ISL 2025–26 title race and are no longer in contention.

Mohammedan SC

Mohammedan SC sit at the bottom of the table with no wins and just 3 points from 11 matches, making their ISL 2025–26 title hopes nonexistent.

In fact, rather than being in the race, they are drifting further away from it with each game. At this stage, they look more like strong contenders for relegation to the I-League than a side capable of competing anywhere near the top.

For Inter Kashi, Chennaiyin FC, SC Delhi, Kerala Blasters FC, NorthEast United FC, Odisha FC and Mohammedan SC, the title race is realistically out of reach at this stage.

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