What to look out for in the UEFA Europa League this season

Last season’s UEFA Europa League campaign was one of the most talked-about tournaments in European football. In the end, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United reached the final despite their woeful efforts domestically in the English Premier League. And as we all remember, it was Spurs that ultimately came out on top, favoring defensive stability in Bilbao to nick a 1-0 win against the Red Devils, courtesy of Brennan Johnson’s bundled finish, a goal that ensured manager Ange Postecoglou lived up to his second-season trophy promise. 

Now, the continent’s secondary tournament is back, with 36 teams all aiming for a spot in the Istanbul showpiece next May and the guaranteed position in next season’s Champions League that the trophy brings with it. But what are the biggest talking points upon the competition’s triumphant return? Here are our points to watch. 

More english dominance 

Last season, the race to Bilbao was headlined by two residents of England’s vaunted ‘Big Six.’ They were, of course, Spurs and United, who were successful in their quest to reach the final, with Tottenham eventually winning out in the Basque Country. This season, the bookies make the Premier League’s two representatives among the frontrunners for glory once again. However, unlike last season, the two English sides heading into the Europa League aren’t among the country’s typical European contenders. 

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest will head into the UEL this term, a far cry from the Big Six battle of last term. Even so, though, online betting sites give them a huge chance of leaving Istanbul with the trophy. The bookies make the Villans the 6/1 outright favorite, while the Tricky Trees are just behind at 10/1, with only Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma sandwiched between them. 

The unpredictability factor

With a tournament as wide open as the UEFA Europa League, it’s never easy to predict who will emerge as champions. As such, the competition provides the perfect opportunity to break out the betting tools, specifically expected value calculators. The popular expected value calculator at Thunderpick can be a powerful ally for fans looking to outsmart the bookies. 

This analytical tool evaluates whether a bet offers long-term profitability by comparing the implied probability of bookmakers’ odds with your own assessment of a team’s chances. Take Villa, for instance—bookmakers’ 6/1 odds suggest a 14.3% chance of lifting the trophy. If your analysis places their chances closer to 20%, the EV calculator confirms whether backing Villa is a value bet. 

The same logic applies to Nottingham Forest at 10/1 (9.1% implied probability), Roma, and some longer-priced names such as Real Betis, Lyon, and Freiburg. By identifying discrepancies between market odds and actual potential, this tool empowers bettors to make informed, strategic decisions. In a competition where surprises are the norm, precision and insight can make all the difference.

Highly motivated turks  

Over the years, the team whose stadium is hosting the final is usually highly motivated to secure an invite to the party that their club is hosting. We saw it last season with Athletic Bilbao, with the Spaniards making it to the semifinals and just one step away from featuring in the final that their stunning San Mames home hosted. Ultimately, however, a first-half red card in the final four robbed them of the opportunity, with Manchester United progressing at their expense. 

This season, Beşiktaş – whose Beşiktaş Stadium hosts the final – aren’t in the UEFA Europa League, but their cross-city rivals Fenerbahçe are. And if there’s one thing that motivates a team more than playing a final in their home stadium, it’s playing the final in the home of one of their biggest rivals. We saw it in the Champions League back in 2010, with Jose Mourinho claiming Barcelona had an “obsession” to reach the Bernabeu-hosted final that year, home of arch-rivals Real Madrid. We also saw it with the 2024 Conference League final, as Olympiacos claimed the crown in the home of rivals AEK Athens. 

This year, it’s Fenerbahçe who has the opportunity to rub the noses of their rivals in the dirt by lifting the Europa League in the home of rivals Beşiktaş, and the bookies think they have a decent chance. The Yellow Canaries are currently listed as a 33/1 shot to go all the way, odds that position them in the upper-middle of the pack. With a cast of players such as Jhon Duran, Marco Asensio, Ederson, and Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Besiktas fans will be watching on with fear throughout the course of the campaign. 

Can any country stop the big four? 

By the time next May’s final rolls around, it will have been 15 long years since a team from a country other than England, Spain, Germany, or Italy won the title. The most recent team from outside of these nations to win the Europa League was FC Porto, who beat Portuguese compatriots Braga in Dublin back in 2011. In the 15 years since, no one else has managed to claim the crown. 

This year, it’s names from the Big Four countries that dominate the betting charts once again. However, there is some hope from other nations. Porto are considered contenders once again, while French sides Lyon and Lille will be looking to follow in the footsteps of Paris Saint-Germain, the team that romped to Champions League glory last term. Whether any of them can actually take the fight to the big boys, though, remains to be seen. 

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