World Cup: Highest-ranked nations not headed to North America this summer

How the expanded 48-team format still leaves giants behind

The World Cup is quickly approaching, and soon, all eyes will be on it. Arsenal’s potential Premier League title collapse will be forgotten, and instead, their stars will aim to lead their respective national teams to glory. 

All of the big guns have North America in their sights. Reigning champions Argentina will be looking to defend their crown in Lionel Messi’s last ever World Cup. Harry Kane is looking to end 60 long years of English hurt. And Kylian Mbappe is gearing up to hopefully lead France to a third straight final. But none of them is the betting favourite. 

A top Canadian online casino and sportsbook currently lists Euro 2024 winners Spain as the clear 9/2 favorites two months out from the World Cup. Led by teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, Luis de la Fuente’s men have been in scintillating form across the last two years, firstly claiming a record-breaking fourth European Championship in Germany and then breezing through World Cup qualifying as well. 

Remember how we said all the big boys are headed for North America? Well, not quite. Despite the tournament being increased to a mighty 48 teams in 2026, up from the usual 32, some household names still managed to miss out on qualification. Let’s take a look at the highest-ranked nations not invited to football’s biggest party this summer. 

Italy: Ranked 12th 

By the time the 2030 World Cup rolls around, it will be 16 long years since four-time winners Italy last ventured out onto this storied stage. That’s because 2026 brought yet more qualifying heartbreak. 

The Azzurri stumbled their way through qualifiers, suffering thumping defeats home and away to Erling Haaland’s rampant Norway along the way. The 3-0 defeat in Oslo cost Luciano Spalletti his job, and the 4-1 loss at the San Siro was Italy’s worst defeat on home turf in 70 years. That pair of results saw Gennaro Gattuso’s men have to settle for a third straight trip to the playoffs, and just like the previous two, it would end in agony. 

In 2018, it was a defensively resolute Sweden that downed an impotent Italy 1-0 across two legs. Four years later, North Macedonia stunned the Azzurri in Palermo thanks to Aleksandar Trajkovski’s 93rd-minute rocket. This time around, it was Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

All seemed to be going according to plan when Moise Kean gave Italy an early lead in their playoff final in Sarajevo. Then, a red card on the stroke of half-time for highly rated Inter Milan defender Alessandro Bastoni changed everything. Down to ten men, Italy were forced to defend wave after wave of Bosnian attacks, and with just 11 minutes remaining, Haris Tabaković bundled home the equalizer. 

The contest would eventually be decided by a penalty shootout, a format in which captain Gianluigi Donnarumma has thrived so many times before. This time around, however, he was powerless. Bosnia scored all four of their penalties, while Italy’s Pio Esposito and Bryan Cristante missed theirs, sending the Azzurri crashing out and missing their third straight tournament. 

Denmark: Ranked 20th

Denmark has qualified for five of the last seven World Cups, including the last two back-to-back. In fact, they were considered one of the dark horses in Qatar four years ago, only to stumble out in the group stage after losing to both France and Australia. That hangover followed the Danes into Euro 2024, where they were eliminated by Germany without winning a single game, and now, it has culminated in them paying the ultimate price: Missing the World Cup. 

De Rød-Hvide had two golden opportunities to seal their spot in North America. The first of them came at home to a Belarus team that had lost all but one of its four qualifiers up until that point, drawing the other. They would draw a second, clinging on to a 2-2 draw in Copenhagen. 

Still, all hope was not lost, and avoiding defeat against Scotland in Glasgow in the final round of qualifiers would punch Denmark’s ticket. With the pressure on, the Danes crumbled, losing 3-1 after stunning goals from Scott McTominay, Kieran Tierney, and Kenny McLean. 

That forced Brian Riemer’s men into the playoffs, and all was going according to plan when his side thumped North Macedonia 4-0 in the semifinals. In the final against Czechia in Prague, however, disaster struck. Twice Denmark fell behind, and twice they found equalizers thanks to Joachim Andersen and Kasper Høgh. However, their luck would run out from the penalty spot, with the hosts winning the decisive shootout after misses from Rasmus Højlund, Anders Dreyer, and Mathias Jensen. 

Nigeria: Ranked 26th 

There was uproar in Lagos when Nigeria missed out on qualification for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, with Ghana snapping their streak at three straight tournaments after winning on away goals. Their qualifying campaign for 2026 was arguably even worse. 

The Super Eagles won just one of their opening six games, a run that included draws against the likes of Zimbabwe and Lesotho, as well as a shocking loss to Benin. Still, the return of Victor Osimhen would trigger a transformation of fortunes. Nigeria would win three of their final four games, including a crucial goal difference-swinging 4-0 win against Benin on the final day to secure a spot in the playoffs. 

There, the Super Eagles seemingly found their form, sweeping aside Gabon 4-1 in the semifinals. However, they found goals harder to come by in the final against DR Congo. The game would end 1-1 after extra time, with the Leopards shockingly triumphing on penalties to progress to the inter-confederational playoffs, where they would ultimately secure their spot at the World Cup. 

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