Ligue 1 2025-26: Title favourites, top four, relegation battle & more

The 13th-time French league winner PSG will be eager to defend the title.

The Ligue 1 2025–26 season has arrived, and today Rennes and Marseille will play the first game of the new season.

The defending champions, Paris Saint-Germain, just had a fantastic 2024–25 season in which they won the Ligue 1, Coupe de France, and Champions League – marking a continental treble for the first time in club history.

Luis Enrique’s team nearly poured icing on the cake during the summer as well. But they lost to Chelsea in the final in mid-July, missing out on the FIFA Club World Cup triumph.

There are a few teams in the wings aiming to upend the current order. PSG will be seeking to demonstrate their Ligue 1 domination once more this season, having won the previous four league titles available.

After seeing their promising start to 2024–25 fade, Marseille have retained Roberto De Zerbi for the second season. It will also be the first time in five seasons that a head coach has remained with the team. This time, they will be looking to put forward a title challenge.

However, after having different outcomes in the close competition for UEFA Champions League spots the previous season, teams like Lille and Monaco will also be eager to increase the pressure.

Title contenders

The European champions are the clear favourites to win the title once more, which is not surprising.

Last term, Luis Enrique’s club won the championship in early April. They only dropped points in six draws and two losses overall. Moreover, their first defeat came after they had already secured the top spot.

They made history by winning the Coupe de France and Champions League crowns after finishing 19 points ahead of second-place Marseille in Ligue 1. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 78.7% chance of winning the title for the fifth straight season. They have a meagre 12.8% chance of placing second, and a pitiful 3.7% chance of not placing among the top three.

Only two clubs in addition to PSG have won Ligue 1 since 2012–13; Lille defeated them in 2020–21, and AS Monaco won in 2016–17.

Given that they placed fifth in the previous campaign and lost their great striker Jonathan David, who scored 16 goals in Ligue 1 in 2024–25, Lille are awarded the second-best chance of winning the championship, with hopes at just 5.5%.

At 4.2%, Monaco have a decent chance. Four of the previous five campaigns have seen them place in the top three.

The only additional teams with in excess of a 2% chance of lifting the title are Marseille and Lyon, who prevailed in an appeal against demotion to Ligue 2 during the off-season. However, it will be difficult for any of the clubs to defeat PSG.

Who will be hoping to secure Champions League spots?

The contest for the Champions League spots is anticipated to be considerably more competitive and, similar to last season, might come down to the wire. However, the title race appears to be a relatively simple affair.

With the top three clubs guaranteed advancing to the Champions League league phase and one team going to the third round of qualifying, seventeen of the league’s eighteen teams are given at minimum a one per cent chance of finishing inside the top four.

Lille have a 51.4% probability of winning a Champions League spot overall, making them the favourites to finish second (18.4%). However, as was previously mentioned, they will have difficulties.

Monaco’s odds of finishing second are marginally more (15.8%), although they are predicted to finish third for the second consecutive season (15.2%).

With a 43% likelihood, Marseille, who have their star goal scorer in Mason Greenwood, who finished as the joint top scorer and took more shots than any other player (120), are predicted to finish in the top four.

However, Paulo Fonseca is also assigned a 43% chance of finishing in the top four in his first full season as manager, so Lyon are predicted to be just behind them.

Nice came fourth last season and qualified for the Champions League qualifying rounds for the first time since 2017–18. They have a 22.8% chance of doing so again.

Brest, which advanced to the play-offs before suffering a devastating 10-0 aggregate loss to PSG, have a good chance of qualifying in the top four this time around, as do Strasbourg (22.9%) and Lens (19.2%).

Battle for survival

The recently promoted teams of Lorient, Paris FC, and Metz are all anticipated to be pulled into the survival battle; there are no clear favourites to be demoted.

Although they are predicted to return immediately to the second division, Metz shocked Reims in extra time to secure the final promotion berth. They have a 32.5% chance of being relegated overall, with a 17.4% chance of finishing last.

At 31%, Lorient have the second-highest chance of going down with Metz. Although they are unlikely to finish in the bottom (16.3%) with Paris FC (16.9%), as the team from the capital is expected to see themselves 15th after the end of the season.

Angers also appear to be in the fight at the bottom of the table and are the only other team with a greater than 20% possibility of relegation (24%). However, Nantes (18.4%) may also be in trouble, given their chances of earning a play-off spot are 10.2%.

With a 6.8% chance of having to compete for their spot in Ligue 1, Auxerre may be looking over their shoulder to avoid 16th place, even though they are predicted to finish 12th. Their chances of finishing in the top four are 6%, which means they have an almost equal chance to contend at either end of the table.

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