Premier League Boxing Day odds & tips: Man United, Newcastle & more

English top flight will have many entertaining matches on Boxing Day.

Premier League Boxing Day is upon us. Every club will be looking to win on this big occasion with fans around England occupying the seats of possibly packed stadiums to cheer their respective favourite clubs.

Boxing Day will provide many entertaining games and in this piece, we have taken a look at three top fixtures and their Boxing Day odds and tips.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

After defeating Ipswich Town on the road and Leicester City at home, Newcastle won back-to-back games to climb to eighth place in the standings after 17 games this season. They should be at or near the middle of the table based on their performances.

With 13.7 shots per game, they rank 10th, while with 13.6 shots given up, they rank 14th, a difference of only +0.1.

They are therefore scoring the ninth-highest projected goals (28.22) and giving up the eighth-lowest expected goals (26.61), a difference of just +1.61. This indicates that they rank 12th in terms of predicted points, which is a very excellent indicator of overall skill.

After defeating Manchester City, sixth-place Aston Villa enter this match in excellent form, having won four of their previous five games and outperforming Newcastle in terms of performance.

With 12.9 shots per game, they rank 14th, while with 11.5 shots given up, they rank 6th, a difference of +1.4 (Newcastle +0.1). They are therefore scoring the seventh-highest number of predicted goals (33.02) and giving up the fifth-lowest number of projected goals (24.86), a difference of +8.16 (Newcastle +1.61). This indicates that they are ranked fifth in terms of expected points.

Newcastle are Evens, which is illogical. Once more, they have only won two of eight games against top-half opponents.

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace 

With another fantastic 3-0 victory at Old Trafford, Bournemouth duplicated their success from the previous season, making the odds for Manchester United to win look ridiculous.

They are now only three points outside of the Champions League spots and in fifth position. Despite an extremely disheartening 5-1 loss to Arsenal, Crystal Palace have recently improved and have only lost once in their last six games.

Backing goals at the prices is the clear choice in this situation. There have been 48 goals (for 27, against 21) at an average of 2.82 per game in Bournemouth’s games. With Marcus Tavernier, Antoine Semenyo, and Evanilson as the league’s top underachievers in front of goal, they ought to have scored more goals, though, as they created 36.89 anticipated goals.

They are keen to take shots, ranking second with 16.5 attempts per game, which contributes significantly to their excellent opportunities. Given that 19 of Bournemouth’s previous 29 games have witnessed three goals or more (66%), it should come as no surprise that over 2.5 goals is a consistent winner.

Since Ismaila Sarr was added to the starting lineup, Crystal Palace have scored a notably higher number of goals and, consequently, more goals overall in their games.

In his last 11 starts, the team scored 33 goals at an average of 3.0 goals per game against Premier League opponents. Only 18 goals had been scored in the eight games without him, prior to him starting the last nine, at a mere 2.25 goals per game on average.

Wolves vs Manchester United

Results returned to what we’ve grown used to with Manchester United this season after they stole the win in the derby against Manchester City the previous weekend. Ruben Amorim has now lost three of his past four games.

Given that United are currently in 13th place with a negative goal differential, the new manager has only won two of his six Premier League games.

Wolves, who finally parted ways with Gary O’Neil, have also hired a new manager. With all three goals coming before halftime, Portuguese manager Vitor Pereira led his team to a convincing 3-0 victory over Leicester City on the road.

Two of the players he brought in, fellow countrymen Rodrigo Gomes and Goncalo Guedes, both scored, suggesting that his four alterations from their last game were effective.

For a Manchester United team that has only won twice on the road in eight games and scored just eight goals, near Even money estimates for an away victory seem way too low.

Usually, managerial changes occur due to poor performance and bad luck. When a new manager takes over, you receive a ‘new manager bounce’.

Since Wolves rank fourth in terms of predicted points, their performances haven’t been as poor as their league standing indicates, and more successful outcomes are due. Frequently, bad luck balances out good luck.

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