Alex de Minaur vs Frances Tiafoe prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Canadian Open 2025

Tiafoe takes on De Minaur in hopes of making his first Canadian Open quarter-final.

Frances Tiafoe scuttled a comeback bid by Aleksandar Vukic in the third round of the Canadian Open 2025, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 in one hour and 50 minutes. Tiafoe, the seventh seed, now faces Vukic’s compatriot Alex de Minaur in a bid to make the quarter-finals for the first time. 

De Minaur advanced to the fourth round after receiving a walkover from compatriot Christopher O’Connell. De Minaur eased past Francisco Comesana, 6-4, 6-2 in just 90 minutes in his opening round match. The Australian will cross paths with Tiafoe for the first time since their meeting in the 2022 Paris Masters. 

Tiafoe, ranked No. 13, made the most of Vukic’s 45 unforced errors to make the round of 16 for the third time at the ATP 1000 event. A pair of first-round exits mark Tiafoe’s 2023 and 2024 visits to Toronto. De Minaur reached the finals in 2023, but found himself in the path of Jannik Sinner, who won 6-4, 6-1.

Match details

• Tournament: Canadian Open 2025 
• Round: Fourth Round 
• Date: August 3
• Venue: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada
• Surface: Hard

Preview

A re-match from the Washington Open quarter-finals against Ben Shelton could be on the cards for Tiafoe. But that will have to wait, for he has to find a way past De Minaur. Tiafoe has beaten de Minaur just once on tour at the 2022 Paris Masters.

The American prevailed on that occasion with a 6-3, 7-6(5) scoreline in the fourth round of the ATP 1000 event. 

All their meetings have taken place on hard courts, with the Aussie leading 3-1 in head-to-head records. The setting will be the same as their last face-off, but at a different venue – the fourth round of the Canadian Masters in 2025.   

De Minaur will be in a buoyant mood after winning his 10th ATP title at the recently concluded Washington Open. He rallied back from a set down to defeat Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 5-7, 6-1, 7-6(3).

As it stands, there is the intriguing prospect of De Minaur taking on Fritz in the last four, which will break the 5-5 deadlock in their head-to-head. Should Tiafoe find himself facing Fritz in the last four, the No. 7 seed will look to end a string of seven straight losses to his countryman. 

Also Read: Top five youngest men’s singles champions at Canadian Open

Form

• De Minaur: W-W-W-W-W
• Tiafoe: W-W-L-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Alex de Minaur: 3
• Frances Tiafoe: 1

Stats

Alex de Minaur

• De Minaur has a 37-13 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• De Minaur has a 9-4 win-loss record in Canada.
• De Minaur has won 65% of matches played on hard courts.

Frances Tiafoe

• Tiafoe has a 22-16 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Tiafoe has a 7-6 win-loss record in Canada.
• Tiafoe has won 53% of matches played on hard courts.

Also Read: Canadian Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Alex de Minaur vs Frances Tiafoe: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: De Minaur -285, Tiafoe +235.
• Spread: De Minaur -3.5 (-118), Tiafoe +3.5 (-104). 
• Total Sets: Over 21.5 (-126), Under 22.5 (-124).
• 1st Set Winner: De Minaur -230, Tiafoe +175.
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-139), Under 10.5 (-295)

Match prediction

The odds favour De Minaur over Tiafoe in their upcoming fourth-round clash in Toronto. Working in the Australian’s favour would be his 3-1 advantage over Tiafoe and the momentum from winning the Washington Open last week.

Tiafoe suffered a quarter-final exit to Ben Shelton in straight sets at the ATP 500 event, while De Minaur went on to take the crown. 

De Minaur dismissed Comesana for the loss of just six games and faced a lone breakpoint, which he saved. Tiafoe has the bigger serve, but if De Minaur can sustain the level he showcased in his opening round, he could be well on his way to another deep run this month. The Australian’s excellent court coverage is likely to tilt the odds further in his favour.

Result: Alex de Minaur to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Alex de Minaur vs Frances Tiafoe, fourth-round match at Canadian Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the 2025 Canadian Open fourth round match between Alex de Minaur and Frances Tiafoe on the Sony TEN Network and their streaming service, SonyLiv. Sky UK and Tennis Channel will broadcast the contest live within the United Kingdom and the United States, respectively. 

Full broadcast details here

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram