Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Sabalenka is a two-time Madrid Open winner.

Aryna Sabalenka has easily been the best player on tour, winning in Miami and Brisbane and reaching four finals. Her first clay tournament of the season in Stuttgart ended in the final, where she lost to Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets.

The Belarusian has shown glimpses of his talent on clay, although it has been his least favourite surface of the three. Having won the Madrid Open twice and finished runner-up last year, Sabalenka will be hoping to win the title for the third time. Let’s take a look at her potential path to the Madrid Open 2025 final.

Round 1: Bye

Round 2: Qualifier

Sabalenka receives a bye into the second round and is expected to open her title defense against a qualifier.

Round 3: Elise Mertens / Camila Osorio

Sabalenka had faced Elise Mertens just a week ago in Stuttgart, where the World No. 1 dropped just 5 games on her path to a dominant win. Sabalenka edged past Camila Osorio in the Madrid Open 2023 and is expected to repeat her heroics this season, too.

Round 4: Amanda Anisimova / Yulia Putintseva

Amanda Anisimova has always challenged Sabalanka, with an excellent head-to-head record of 5-2. The top seed will be aware of this contest and have to produce his best tennis to avoid an upset.

Yulia Putintseva hasn’t been in form this season. She had a decent 2024 but has been unable to get going this year and is unlikely to reach the round of 16. If she manages to, she could prove to be a headache for Sabalenka, given the pair’s similar game style and hard-hitting nature.

Quarter-final: Qinwen Zheng / Paula Badosa

Qinwen Zheng withdrew from the Stuttgart Open 2025 and will play her first clay tournament in Madrid. Having beaten Swiatek at Roland Garros during the Paris Olympic Games, the Chinese player can certainly beat anyone on her day.

With Zheng back in form, this contest could be interesting as the Olympic gold medallist will look to register her first win over the two-time Madrid winner. Sabalenka could once again cross paths with her close friend Paula Badosa. The Spaniard started 2025 strongly, but a recent injury has hampered her momentum.

Now ranked No. 9, Badosa will be eager to stay healthy and mount a serious challenge on her favored clay surface. However, the odds are stacked against her—Sabalenka is currently riding a dominant six-match winning streak in their head-to-head.

Semi-final: Jessica Pegula / Elena Rybakina

Jessica Pegula has been consistent this season and began the clay season with a bang, triumphing at the Charleston Open 2025. The American has been beaten by Sabalenka on numerous occasions, with the Miami final being the latest. This contest promises to be entertaining, with Sabalenka starting as the favorite.

Another potential battle for the final spot could be against Elena Rybakina. Despite a recent slump in form and ongoing off-court drama, it would be premature to count out Rybakina. The Kazakh remains one of the purest ball strikers in the game, and her fall outside the WTA top 10 might just be the spark she needs to reignite her top-level performance.

Final: Iga Swiatek / Coco Gauff

A highly anticipated clash between World No. 2 Iga Świątek and No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has been on every tennis fan’s radar. However, the encounter has yet to materialize this season, and with fierce competition in the draw, it might not happen just yet. Should it occur, it would be a thrilling rematch of last year’s Madrid Open final, where Swiatek saved three championship points to secure her first title in Madrid.

The other rival, Coco Gauff, has struggled with form lately but still holds a 5-4 advantage over Sabalenka. If the American makes it to the final, fans could be in store for another epic showdown.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram