Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Gauff handed over a crushing defeat to defending champion Swiatek to reach the title clash.

World Number #1 and #4 are set to battle for the ultimate prize at Madrid Open 2025. Aryna Sabalenka, who has already won two titles in Madrid, will feature in her fourth final at the Manzanares Park while Coco Gauff makes her Madrid Open final debut.

Gauff is poised to reclaim the World No #3 spot in the WTA rankings and could even surpass Iga Swiatek for the No #2 position with a victory on Saturday. With a potential shake-up looming in the rankings and Gauff producing her best tennis since 2023, this title clash promises to live up to expectations. It’s a high-stakes battle between two of the most powerful and talented players on WTA tour.

Match details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025
• Round: Final
• Date: May 3
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Sabalenka has coasted through to her sixth final of the 2025 calendar year. The Belarusian’s consistency has been implausible and commendable. She is 2-3 in finals this year and will be hoping to get over the line and complete a rare three peat in Madrid as well as win her first title on clay this year.

The top seed has dropped only one set so far, with clinical wins over Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina in her previous two rounds. For the 10th time, Sabalenka will face Gauff, marking the second instance when they meet in a final.

The American stunned the tennis fraternity with her stunning display of dominance over reigning champion Iga Swiatek. Gauff thundered forehands and first serves with accuracy and precision to hand over the Pole potentially her worst ever defeat on clay. The fourth seed won 6-1, 6-1 and offered Swiatek 0 break points, simply not allowing the World No #2 to get back into the contest.

Having struggled for form this year until Madrid, it has been refreshing to see Gauff play to her potential yet again. In this summit clash between two of the hardest hitters of the tennis ball, the American closely leads the head-to-head battle. Their last meeting took place at the WTA Finals in Riyadh which Gauff won 7-6(4), 6-3. The pair have met just once on clay previously, with the American prevailing in straight sets.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-W
• Coco Gauff: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 9
• Aryna Sabalenka: 4
• Coco Gauff: 5

Full H2h details here

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 28-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 22-4 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Sabalenka has won 71% of matches played on clay courts.

Coco Gauff 

• Gauff maintains an 19-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Gauff has an 9-4 win-loss record in Madrid
• Gauff owns a 73% win record on clay

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -116, Gauff +108
• Spread: Sabalenka -0.5 (-125), Gauff +1.5 (-118)
• Total games: Over 21.5 (-125), Under 21.5 (+100)

Match Prediction

Recent encounters between Sabalenka and Gauff have been anything but predictable. Saturday marks their first meeting on clay since 2021, and Sabalenka has since evolved into a more formidable force on the surface. While she has been the most consistent player this season, the Belarusian has faltered at the big stage.

Gauff, armed with her explosive forehand and powerful serve, will aim to put the top seed under early pressure. Sabalenka, for her part, will look to assert herself from the outset. However, the American’s recent performances suggest she’s rediscovered her top form, and could be on track to claim her first title of the season.

Result: Coco Gauff to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff, Madrid Open final 2025?

The Madrid Open 2025 final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

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