Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Sabalenka has advanced to her fourth Madrid Open semi-final.

Aryna Sabalenka improved her record over Marta Kostyuk to 3-0 in the quarterfinals, but the Belarusian was unable to defeat the Ukrainian as easily as she did in the previous two meetings. The World No. 1 was put through her paces by Kostyuk before prevailing 7-6(4), 7-6(7) after two hours and 32 minutes on court.    

Sabalenka has now advanced to her fourth Madrid Open semi-final, where she will face another Ukrainian, Elina Svitolina. With an all-Ukrainian semi-final off the table, the 26-year-old from Minsk will cross paths with Svitolina at a clay-court WTA 1000 title for only the second time since their fourth-round face-off in Rome 2024.

Svitolina stretched the top seed to three sets at the 2024 Italian Open before Sabalenka rallied from a set down to win 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(7). Svitolina, the No. 17 seed, posted a 6-2, 6-1 win over unseeded Moyuka Uchijima to make the semi-finals for the first time.

Match Details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025 Women’s Singles
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: May 2
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Sabalenka weathered Kostyuk on Wednesday to complete the semi-final line-up, where Elina Svitolina awaits. Defending champion Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff made it with wins over Madison Keys and Mirra Andreeva, respectively. 

The Belarusian saw off a gritty performance from Kostyuk to reach her fourth semi-final at the event to draw level with Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep for the most round-of-four appearances in the Spanish capital. 

Sabalenka is close to booking a spot in the final and reliving the title round match from last season against Iga Swiatek. The much-anticipated Sabalenka-Swiatek affair will make history if it materialises. The duo will enter the record books as the first players to face off three times in a row in a WTA 1000 final at a single event.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-L-W
• Elina Svitolina: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 5
• Aryna Sabalenka: 4
• Elina Svitolina: 1

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka: 

• Sabalenka has a 29-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 21-4 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Sabalenka has won 71% of matches played on clay courts.

Elina Svitolina:

• Svitolina has an 18-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Svitolina has a 7-9 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Svitolina has won 67% of matches played on clay courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -200, Svitolina +170.
• Spread: Sabalenka -3.5 (-105), Svitolina +3.5 (-115). 
• Total games: Over 21.5 (-115), Under 21.5 (-103).

Match Prediction

Sabalenka will look to reach her sixth tour-level final of the season, which could be her fourth title-round appearance in Madrid. She has two titles at the venue after losing to Swiatek in a closely contested final last year.

Svitolina has largely flown under the radar this season and is on a nine-match winning streak at WTA events. After helping Ukraine secure a spot in this year’s Billie Jean King Cup Finals with two singles wins, she won her first WTA title in two years at Rouen, France, without dropping a set.

Svitolina has registered four straight-set wins in Madrid, but taking on Sabalenka will be a big ask. The Belarusian has withstood pressure well in Madrid this year. Heading into the Svitolina match, the World No. 1 has saved 154 breakpoints thus far in the 2025 season.  

Result: Sabalenka will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina, semi-final match at Madrid Open 2025?

The semi-final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina at the Madrid Open 2025 will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

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