Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Italian Open 2025

Sabalenka and Kostyuk will renew their rivalry in Rome.

Aryna Sabalenka sidestepped the possibility of an early exit on Day 5 after three of the top five seeds departed on Saturday. The World No. 1 was down a set in her Italian Open 2023 rematch against Sofia Kenin. Sabalenka regrouped for a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 win against the No. 31 seed American in two hours and 13 minutes.

Since her title run in Miami, she has won 17 of her last 18 matches. The 27-year-old kept her title hopes after defeating Kenin and is on track to win her third consecutive WTA 1000 title after winning both Miami and Madrid this season.

A victory in Rome would mean Sabalenka will emulate Serena Williams’ record-breaking season in 2013 when she won three WTA 1000 titles at Miami, Madrid, and Rome in addition to the French Open.

Marta Kostyuk’s third-round match against Leylah Fernandez was a straight-set affair. The Ukrainian came through on Pietrangeli with a 6-4, 6-2 win in 94 minutes in her maiden clash with Fernandez. Their previous meeting came at the Les Petits As, a prestigious Under-14 tournament, where Kostyuk took the win en route to the title. 

Match Details

• Tournament: Italian Open 2025
• Round: Fourth round
• Date: May 13
• Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Sabalenka could win the crown in Rome in the 2025 season. Following defending champion Iga Swiatek’s early exit, the top seed is favoured to go all the way. Sabalenka lost to Swiatek in last year’s Rome final.

She also exorcised the ghosts of 2023 when she avenged her loss to Kenin in her opening match of the 2023 edition. Sabelanka converted seven break points out of the 23 she carved out to earn her fourth win in five meetings against Kenin. 

In contrast to the exodus of the top seeds in the draw’s bottom half, the big names have safely navigated to the second week, led by Sabalenka. Should she find a way past Kostyuk, the top seed could face Qinwen Zheng in the last eight.

Kostyuk’s performance at the ongoing Italian Open is not bad, she has won all three matches without losing a single set. She began her campaign with a quickfire 62-minute win over Alexandra Eala, dropping just a single game in their face-off. The 22-year-old Kostyuk is amid her best-ever run in the Italian capital, with a second-round appearance in 2023 being her previous best.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-W
• Marta Kostyuk: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 3
• Sabalenka: 3
• Kostyuk: 0

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka: 

• Sabalenka has a 33-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has an 11-6 win-loss record in Rome.
• Sabalenka has won 72% of matches played on clay courts.

Marta Kostyuk:

• Kostyuk has a 17-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Kostyuk has a 4-4 win-loss record in Rome.
• Kostyuk has won 54% of matches played on clay courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -325, Kostyuk +280.
• Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 (-115), Kostyuk +4.5 (-110). 
• Total games: Over 20.5 (-115), Under 20.5 (-110).

Match Prediction

Aryna Sabalenka should thank Danielle Collins, who made her path to the title easier as the American knocked out Iga Swiatek in the third round. Sabalenka’s 33-5 win-loss record and three titles from six finals justify her elevation as the title favourite in Rome. 

After brushing off a slow start against a competitive Kenin, the Belarusian looks primed to reach her third quarter-final at the Italian Open. Her rival, Marta Kostyuk, was 1-4 before arriving in Rome. She has since then taken down three opponents – Alexandra Eala, Daria Kasatkina, and Leylah Fernandez in straight sets for the loss of 13 games across the three rounds.

Despite fluctuating fortunes this season, Kostuk climbed seven spots in the WTA Rankings in late April, rising to No. 27. The rise was propelled by quarter-final appearances at Doha and Madrid, both high-profile WTA 1000 events. Sabalenka was fortunate to escape with victory after a closely fought quarter-final in Madrid to win 7-6(4), 7-6(7). 

Result: Sabalenka to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk, fourth-round match at Italian Open 2025?

The fourth-round match between Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk at the Italian Open 2025 will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram