Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to Canadian Open 2024 final

The Canadian Open might be the tournament where Aryna Sabalenka’s six-month title drought ends.

Aryna Sabalenka is the second defending champion of a Grand Slam title in the fray at Canadian Open 2024, having won the Australian Open in January this year. The other is Coco Gauff, who won the US Open in 2023.

The Canadian Open is a WTA 1000 event that kicks off the North American hardcourt swing and will be played in Toronto. Sabalenka arrives for the event after making the semi-finals at the Mubadala Citi DC Open. It was the Belarusian’s first tournament after withdrawing from Wimbledon with a shoulder injury.

Sabalenka lost out to Marie Bouzkova in her bid for a second trophy of the season with a three-set loss in a rain-affected match.

Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to Canadian Open 2024 final

Second Round: Cristina Bucsa

As the second seed, the Belarusian will get a bye in the first round. Sabalenka’s powerful game could take her past the 600-winner count at WTA 1000 events in 2024 – she is currently on 584 when the World No. 3 faces Spaniard Cristina Bucsa to kick off her Canadian Open campaign.

Sabalenka came close to winning the event in 2021 when she made the last four. Bucsa has two appearances at the WTA 1000 event, making first-round exits on both occasions after making her way through qualifying. Sabalenka and Bucsa will kick off their WTA Tour rivalry in the upcoming second-round game on Thursday (August 8th).

Third Round: Beatriz Haddad Maia

A third-round clash against Brazil’s Beatriz Haddad Maia looms for Sabalenka. It will be the first WTA meeting for the pair. The Brazilian World No. 22 is to face Mubadala Citi DC Open finalist Marie Bouzkova in her opening-round match. Haddad Maia will need to recapture that form that gave her a semi-final appearance at the Abu Dhabi Open in February.

Beatriz Haddad Maia was also a finalist at the 2022 Canadian Open, something that will help should she find herself across the net from Sabalenka.

Quarter-finals: Daria Kasatkina

Sabalenka, seeded second at Toronto, could run into Daria Kasatkina in the last eight. Sabalenka extended the lead over the Russian to 7-2, having won both their matches in 2024. The wins came at Brisbane and Berlin, both in straight sets.

Kasatkina has a free pass into the second round at the Canadian Open, thanks to a bye. There, the fifth seed will face either Caroline Dolehide or Amanda Anisimova, both unseeded players. The WTA World No. 12 made the quarterfinals last season but lost out to Elena Rybakina. It equaled her best performance at the WTA 1000 event in 2016.

Semi-finals: Jelena Ostapenko

Sabalenka has an unblemished record against Jelena Ostapenko, having defeated the Latvian in all three career meetings. Recently, Ostapenko was humbled by Sabalenka in Rome this year. The result was a straight-set loss in the Italian Open quarter-finals.

The Latvian’s record at the WTA 1000 event—going as far as the round of 16 in her seven appearances at the Canadian Open—will leave her vulnerable as she goes up against the big-hitting Sabalenka. Ostapenko may go up against the Mubadala Citi DC Open winner, Paula Badosa, in a tricky opening-round face-off.  

Final: Coco Gauff

Given the depleted field at the Canadian Open, a rematch of the Australian Open semi-final between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff is a real possibility. Gauff leads their seven-match rivalry by four wins to three. Gauff has an edge over Sabalenka the last time the only time they met in Toronto in 2022. The American prevailed in three sets in their fourth-round face-off.

While neither player has won the Canadian Open, Sabalenka has won five WTA 1000 titles to just one by Gauff. The American has three Grand Slam champions lurking in her half of the draw – Sofia Kenin, Naomi Osaka, and Victoria Azarenka. The trio will complicate her path to the final, while Sabalenka faces no such worries, though her recent injuries will be in the back of her mind.

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