Jannik Sinner's projected path to Canadian Open 2024 final

Defending champion Jannik Sinner will enter as the top seed at the Canadian Open.

ATP World No. 1 Jannik Sinner will lead the pack at the Canadian Open in the tournament’s 2024 edition. The 22-year-old Italian won the Masters event twelve months ago with a straight-set win over Australian Alex de Minaur for his maiden ATP 1000 title triumph.

The main draw of the sixth Masters event of 2024 begins today, August 6th, and runs until August 12th. Alongside Sinner, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev will also be seen in action.

The Italian is making his first appearance since Wimbledon, having withdrawn from the Paris Olympics due to tonsillitis. The World No. 1 is back on Canadian soil as the top-ranked player in the ATP Rankings, boasting a 22-1 season record on hard courts and 42-4 overall. The sole defeat on hard courts came to Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells.

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, the finalists at the men’s singles event at the Olympics, will be conspicuous by their absence. Their absence guarantees Sinner a smoother yet tricky path to the finals.

Second Round: Pedro Martinez

Having received a first-round bye, Jannik Sinner is expected to play his opening round against Spaniard Pedro Martinez, who is to meet a qualifier in his opening round. Sinner leads 1-0 in his head-to-head against the unseeded Spaniard.

Their first and only meeting on tour came at the 2022 Italian Open. Sinner took the win in their first-round encounter in straight sets. While Martinez won a title that year at Santiago, it remains his only title win. In 2022, he also made his only appearance at the Canadian-based Masters event. The Spaniard failed to make it past the first round on that occasion.

Third Round: Alejandro Tabilo

A third-round match against Chilean fifteenth seed Alejandro Tabilo could await Jannik Sinner. It will also be their first meeting on the tour. Tabilo, a southpaw, begins his campaign against the Mubadala Citi DC Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe. If they cross paths, Sinner may have to contend with the crowd support for the Canadian-born Tabilo.

Tabilo has eight main draw appearances at Masters events under his belt, but none in Canada. His best result at an ATP 1000 event is his semi-final appearance in Rome this year. An 8-3 season record on hard courts gives Tabilo a 73% win rate on the surface.

Quarter-final: Andrey Rublev

Jannik Sinner and a potential last-eight meeting with Andrey Rublev will see their rivalry resume at 5-2 with the Italian in the lead. The 22-year-old has won their last three matches, including the quarter-final at the Australian Open 2024. Rublev arrives in Montreal after a quarter-final showing in Washington.

The Russian tennis star will play either Tomas Martin Etcheverry or Nicolas Jarry in the second round. He, too, was given a first-round bye. The farthest Rublev has gone in Canada was the round of 16 in 2021. He, however, has won two ATP Masters 1000 titles—the first in Monte Carlo in 2023 and the second in Madrid this year. Rublev’s hard court season record stands at 17-7.

Semi-final: Daniil Medvedev 

Meeting Daniil Medvedev in the semi-final will bring back memories of the 2024 Wimbledon quarter-final for Jannik Sinner. Medvedev denied the World No. 1 a chance to progress to the last four in a marathon five-setter at the All England Lawn Tennis Club. The ATP World No. 5 leads Sinner 7-5 in their head-to-head. Before meeting at Wimbledon, Sinner had won five in a row against Medvedev.

Medvedev could run into either Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or Roman Safiullin at the beginning of his campaign. The third seed has won the Canadian Masters in 2021 and is also a six-time Masters 1000 titlist. The former World No. 1 is placed fourth in the race to Turin along with a tidy 18-4 season record on hard courts – a surface on which Medvedev has historically performed well.

Final – Alexander Zverev

Standing in the way of Jannik Sinner’s aspirations of another Canadian Open could be Alexander Zverev. The German player appears to be Sinner’s Achilles heel, having defeated Zverev only once in five matches, back in 2020 at Roland Garros.

Zverev will be pleased to be back in Montreal, having won the title in 2017. The World No. 4 won the 2024 Masters 1000 event in Rome and has 47 match wins this season against 14 losses. On hard courts, the second seed has an 18-6 season record.

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