Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Wimbledon 2025 final

Carlos Alcaraz is a two-time defending champion at Wimbledon.

The new era officially began at Wimbledon 2024, when Carlos Alcaraz thrashed Novak Djokovic in the finals in straight sets. The Spaniard is already a grass-court specialist, boasting the best win rate on this surface. Alcaraz has matched Andy Murray’s tally of two titles at the Championship already, at the age of only 22.

As the World No. 2, Alcaraz was always going to get a favorable path, and in contrast to the previous two editions, his route is far easier. On the back of three consecutive titles, the Spaniard would be hoping to complete a rare three-peat. Let’s take a look at his potential route to glory at Wimbledon 2025.

Round 1 – Fabio Fognini

Carlos Alcaraz starts his title defense against the mercurial Italian veteran Fabio Fognini. While Fognini’s shotmaking and experience can trouble anyone on his day, Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 2–0 and is far superior, especially on grass. Fognini’s best days are likely behind him, and his grass-court record is modest.

Round 2 – Oliver Tarvet / Leandro Riedi

In round two, Alcaraz faces either British wildcard Oliver Tarvet or Swiss youngster Leandro Riedi, both of whom are making rare appearances at this level. Neither has faced the Spaniard before, and neither has a significant grass-court pedigree. Alcaraz’s explosive game and experience should see him through comfortably.

Round 3 – Felix Auger-Aliassime / Jan-Lennard Struff

The third round could be another easy battle for the two-time winner’s first real test, with a likely matchup against either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Jan-Lennard Struff. Alcaraz leads Auger-Aliassime 4–3, though their matches have been close, and the Canadian’s recent form has been great.

Against Struff, Alcaraz leads 3–1, including a win on grass. Both are good on their day, but Alcaraz’s superior return game and consistency have given him the edge in past encounters.

Round 4 – Andrey Rublev / Stefanos Tsitsipas

Both potential rivals for this round have faded, with new players outperforming them. Andrey Rublev played only one grass event in 2025, losing in the second round. Stefanos Tsitsipas suffered a similar fate; the Greek has struggled to find form, and another early exit cannot be ruled out. The Spaniard, meanwhile, is not expected to face much trouble at this stage either.

Quarter-final – Holger Rune / Jiri Lehecka

In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz could face either the explosive Holger Rune or the rising Czech, Jiri Lehecka. Rune, seeded eighth, is yet to fully master grass, while Lehecka’s game has shown promise on this surface, including a previous fourth-round run at Wimbledon and a recent finalist at Queen’s.

Both opponents could push Alcaraz with aggressive play, but his tactical flexibility and experience in high-pressure matches should see him through to the semifinals.

Semi-final – Alexander Zverev / Daniil Medvedev

Alexander Zverev has done reasonably well in the early rounds but rarely finds success against top-ranked players, and a duel with the German would likely be straightforward for Alcaraz. Otherwise, for a third straight time, Daniil Medvedev might meet him in the semifinals.

The Spaniard has prevailed over the Russian in their previous encounters, and Medvedev’s poor form since Wimbledon 2024 suggests a third consecutive final berth for the defending champion.

Final – Jannik Sinner / Novak Djokovic

Jannik Sinner has never reached the finals of the marquee event, but would be hoping to avenge his Roland Garros defeat against Alcaraz. The World No. 1 lost to Bublik in the Halle final, but despite that, he is a top contender, due to his incredible athleticism and quick movement on the court.

However, seven-time champion Novak Djokovic can never be doubted, as the Serbian has reached the Wimbledon Championships final in the last six seasons.

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