Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: ATP Finals 2025
Alcaraz remains undefeated in the Jimmy Connors Group.
Carlos Alcaraz rallied to a 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3 victory over Taylor Fritz to remain undefeated in the Jimmy Connors Group. Fritz claimed the opening set and looked poised to defeat Alcaraz for the second time this season. The American and 2024 finalist overcame Alcaraz in the round robin stage of the Laver Cup earlier this year.
Alcaraz dug deep to stay the course for a maiden ATP Finals title by delivering in a two-hour, 48-minute thriller. The Spaniard is now a win away from finishing the year as World No. 1, as he moves up to 5-1 in his career head-to-head rivalry against Taylor Fritz.
The 22-year-old Alcaraz now leads the Jimmy Connors Group, having won both his round robin matches and the 50th Top 10 win of his career.
There was little to tell the two players apart in a high-quality exchange. Alcaraz fired 47 winners, while the American replied with 37 winners and 14 aces.
Fritz held it together until losing a crucial hold of serve in the sixth game of the decider before finally conceding to the top seed after saving three match points in the third set.
The Spaniard and World No. 1 will now face Italian Lorenzo Musetti in his final group stage match.
Musetti edged out Alex de Minaur in a closely fought three-setter, taking two hours, 47 minutes to cross the finish line. The Italian registered his fourth straight win over the Australian after the 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 victory. An off-colour De Minaur contributed to his loss with as many as 44 unforced errors.
The 23-year-old Musetti needed a win to keep his hopes alive in his debut at the season finale. The World No. 9 Italian, a last-minute qualification, lost to Taylor Fritz in straight sets in his first round-robin match.
It was another disappointment for the World No. 7 from Sydney as he now falls to 0-2 in the Jimmy Connors Group and finds himself on the brink of an early exit.
Match details
- Tournament: ATP Finals 2025
- Round: Round Robin
- Date: November 13
- Venue: Turin, Italy
- Surface: Indoor Hard Court
Also Read: Not Rafa Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz picks this former star for ‘best forehand’ in tennis history
Preview
Musetti faces a stern test in the form of Alcaraz, to whom he trails 1-6 in tour-level matches. The Italian, third in his group, faces another must-win situation against the Spaniard.
Musetti joined the elite eight by taking Novak Djokovic’s place in the lineup after the Serb decided not to play in Turin. The Italian will have to work to make his debut in the season finale count as he goes up against the top seed on Friday. Musetti did well against De Minaur in a close match, remaining undefeated against the Australian in 2025.
The last time Musetti defeated Alcaraz was in the 2022 Hamburg Open finals. Their most recent face-off in Roland Garros ended when Musetti retired, trailing two sets to one.
Alcaraz is coming off a morale-boosting victory against the hard-charging Taylor Fritz and is one short of his 70th tour-level victory of 2025. If he defeats Musetti, the Spaniard will return to the semi-finals for a second time, having advanced to the knockout stage in 2023.
Alcaraz will have to look past his less-than-stellar record on indoor hard courts. Just one of his 24 titles has come on the surface, and he was shown the exit in the opening round of the Paris Masters, where he lost to Briton Cameron Norrie in the opening round.
Also Read: Top five youngest ATP Finals winners
Form
- Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-L-W-W
- Lorenzo Musetti: W-L-L-W-W
Head-to-head record
- Matches: 7
- Carlos Alcaraz: 6
- Lorenzo Musetti: 1
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
- Alcaraz has a 69-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season
- Alcaraz has a 5-4 win-loss record in Turin
- Alcaraz has won 77% of matches played on hard courts
Lorenzo Musetti
- Musetti has a 46-20 win-loss record in the 2025 season
- Musetti is making his debut in Turin
- Musetti has won 50% of matches played on hard courts
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti: Betting tips and odds
- Moneyline: Alcaraz -700, Musetti +500
- Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-125), Musetti +4.5 (-110)
- Total Games: Over 20.5 (-120), Under 20.5 (-120)
- 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz -400, Musetti +300
- 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-110), Under 9.5 (-125)
Also Read: ATP Finals: Full list of title winners
Match prediction
Making his third appearance in Turin, Alcaraz will look to make amends for his early exit at the Paris Masters. A title run in the year-ending event would hand the top seed his ninth title of 2025.
Musetti, with victory over De Minaur, has delayed the Spaniard’s progress to the knockout stage of the tournament. Alcaraz will look to complete the job when he takes on Musetti in the last remaining group stage match. The Italian will look to make life difficult for the Spaniard when they cross paths for the fourth time this season, and first ever meeting in 2025 on a surface other than clay.
The 23-year-old Musetti must construct his points well as he did against De Minaur to stand a chance against the athletic Spaniard.
Alcaraz, a fan favourite, will have to contend with local support for Musetti at the Inalpi Arena. The Italian will go up against a highly motivated Alcaraz as he looks to maintain his winning streak in Turin. Musetti, for his part, will look to feed off the crowd support and reach the last four on debut.
Result: Alcaraz to win in three sets.
Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti, round-robin match at ATP Finals 2025?
The round-robin clash will be available for Indian viewers on the Sony Network. Viewers in the UK can tune in to Sky UK, while American audiences can watch the action unfold on Tennis Channel.
Where and when will Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti match take place?
The round-robin clash will be played on the Inalpi Arena in Turin on November 13 (Thursday). It is scheduled to begin at 8:30 pm local time and 1:00 am IST (Friday) in India.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti?
They have clashed seven times on tour previously, with Alcaraz leading the h2h clash with six victories. Musetti’s only win came in their first-ever meeting on the ATP Tour in 2022. They have also additionally met on the Challenger Tour in 2020, which was won by Alcaraz.
What happened in the previous meeting between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti?
Alcaraz and Musetti’s most recent meeting was at the Roland Garros semis in June, which was again won by Alcaraz in four sets — 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-0, 2-0.
For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram
Meet Fazeel—a bibliophile and sci-fi aficionado who devours books and movies alike. His favorite form of exercise? Watching tennis from a perfectly positioned couch. Whether he's lost in a gripping novel or absorbed in a five-hour Grand Slam final, he's all in. Favorite quote: “You cannot be serious” – John McEnroe.
- Top five youngest players to complete a Career Grand Slam
- Carlos Alcaraz joins tennis' all-time elite list with eight ATP titles in 2025
- Serena Williams refutes rumours of her possible return to professional tennis
- After Federer, now Rafael Nadal expresses interest in playing exhibition matches against old rival
- 'Vini needs to understand who is in charge' – Rafael Nadal urges Vinicius Jr to respect Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso
- Athens Hellenic Championship 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details
- Athens Hellenic Championship 2025: Live streaming, TV channel, where & how to watch?
- Full list of players who have qualified for ATP Finals 2025
- Davis Cup 2025: Sumit Nagal leads India to historic win over Switzerland, ending 32-year drought
- Top five active men's singles players with most Grand Slam titles