Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Japan Open 2025

Sinner recently conceded his World No. 1 spot after losing to Alcaraz at the US Open finals.

Carlos Alcaraz comes into China Open 2025 riding high after a dominant season — he’s won multiple titles across surfaces, including Grand Slams like the French Open, and reclaimed the World No. 1 ranking recently, prevailing over Sinner at the US Open.

Hard courts have been particularly fruitful this year: his service games are performing well and his return stats show he’s pressing opponents effectively. In 2024, Beijing was one of his signature events — he fought back from a set down in an intense final to beat Jannik Sinner, thereby completing the set of winning ATP 500 titles on all three surfaces.

Match details

• Tournament: Japan Open 2025
• Round: Round 1
• Date: September 25
• Venue: Ariake Tennis Forest Park in Tokyo, Japan.
• Surface: Hard Court

Preview

Sebastián Báez enters the match as a solid, gritty competitor—he’s a clay-court specialist but has shown flashes on hard courts as well. In 2025, he successfully defended his Rio Open title, becoming the first to win it twice.

Though his game is built more for heavy topspin rallies than outright power, Báez’s consistency, footwork, and courage under pressure mean he can’t be dismissed easily even against the big names.

However, against Alcaraz, Báez faces a stark mismatch in firepower and versatility. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 2–0, with both wins coming on hard courts.

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-W
• Sebastian Baez: L-L-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 2
• Carlos Alcaraz: 2
• Sebastian Baez: 0

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

• Alcaraz has a 54-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Alcaraz has an 8-1 win-loss record in Cincinnati
• Alcaraz has won 75% of matches played on hard courts

Sebastian Baez

• Baez has a 19-21 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Baez has a 13-6 win-loss record in China
• Baez has won 48% of the matches played on hard courts

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -3500, Baez +1800
• Spread: Alcaraz -6.5 (-137), Baez +7.5 (-168)
• Total Games: Over 17.5 (-108), Under 17.5 (-112)
• 1st Set Moneyline: Alcaraz -1400, Baez +800
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-108)

Match prediction

Carlos Alcaraz’s combination of explosive power, depth, and tactical versatility on hard courts makes him a difficult challenge for the Argentine, whose strengths lie more in consistency and constructing points from the baseline.

The Spaniard had opted to skip the China Open, and instead feature in Tokyo, and is easily the frontrunner for the Championship.

Unless Báez can produce an exceptional performance and force uncharacteristic errors from Alcaraz, the young Spaniard’s superior shot-making and experience at high-stakes matches should allow him to control rallies, dictate play, and close out the match efficiently.

Result: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez, first-round match at the Japan Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the ATP-500 Japan Open 2025 round one between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez on Tennis Channel. Sky Sports will broadcast the contest live in the United Kingdom. The Tennis Channel is the official broadcaster in the United States.

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