Coco Gauff's projected path to Miami Open 2025 final

Gauff opens her Miami Open campaign against Sofia Kenin.

Coco Gauff will look to move on from a slow start and turn the corner in the 2025 season. The Florida native will play at her home event following a fourth-round exit at Indian Wells. The 21-year-old Gauff’s best result this season was the quarter-final appearance at the Australian Open.

After second-round losses in Qatar and Dubai, Coco Gauff was defeated in the fourth round by Belinda Bencic in California. She last reached the final of a WTA 1000 event at the 2024 China Open. A straight-set win over Karolina Muchova gave Gauff the China Open title. Gauff, the third seed in Miami, has fallen short of expectations at the event despite being a familiar face here.

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The American leads her quarter portion of the draw as the highest-seeded player, followed by two-time Grand Slam finalist Jasmine Paolini, who comes in at No. 6. The ninth-seed Qinwen Zheng, whom Gauff defeated for her maiden WTA Finals title, gives the American company in her half of the draw alongside top-seed Aryna Sabalenka. Also in Gauff’s corner are defending champion Danielle Collins and two-time Miami Open finalist Elena Rybakina. 

Round 2: Sofia Kenin

Coco Gauff will face fellow American Sofia Kenin, who, like Gauff, also resides in Florida and trains in Delray Beach. Gauff and Kenin are tied at 2-2 in their head-to-head record.

The result of their recent face-off at the season-opening Grand Slam in Melbourne did favour Gauff. She overcame Kenin with a 6-3, 6-3 victory in the opening round. They have traded wins since their rivalry began in 2020, with neither player scoring consecutive wins. Kenin won her first match at the Australian Open that year, 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-0.

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Round 3: Maria Sakkari

Gauff could face Maria Sakkari for the second time this season after the recently concluded Indian Wells Open. Even as Sakkari leads Gauff 5-4, in their head-to-head, the two players are deadlocked at two apiece at tournaments played in the United States.

When their rivalry began in 2020, Sakkari had an early lead over Gauff. With the latest win over the Greek player, Gauff has nearly drawn level ahead of their potential third-round clash in Miami. This will be an interesting contest between two players whose last two matches have resulted in a tie-breaker.  

Round 4: Beatriz Haddad Maia

Gauff and Beatriz Haddad Maia could cross paths for the first time at a WTA event. Ahead of their potential fourth-round clash, Gauff and Haddad Maia of their rusty beginnings to the 2025 season. Gauff at (11-8) and Haddad Maia at (2-8) are yet to find their rhythm this year. 

The American has big-match experience so she should get past the Brazilian, as this will be her first quarterfinal on her home ground.

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Quarter-finals: Jasmine Paolini / Daria Kasatkina

Gauff could face either Jasmine Paolini or Daria Kasatkina in the last eight – both tricky opponents. Paolini is a vastly improved player since her previous meeting with Gauff in 2023. The Italian reached back-to-back finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, besides bagging her first WTA 1000 title in Dubai – all the exploits coming in 2024. Paolini also reached a career-high ranking of No. 6 earlier this month.

Kasatkina has defeated Gauff three times so far. The American will be mindful that she is yet to take a set off the Russian in those three meetings. The potential third-round hurdle awaiting Gauff is a must-win affair if she is to continue the rich tradition of Floridians winning the Miami Open. 

Semi-finals: Aryna Sabalenka / Elena Rybakina / Danielle Collins

It doesn’t get any easier for Gauff in the last four where two top-ten seeds and the defending champion await. Sabalenka and Rybakina, despite not being among the wins in the recent past, are always a threat on hard courts. 

Aryna Sabalenka is the top seed for a reason and has made the title round thrice this season. What may work in Gauff’s favour against the Belarusian is the 3-1 advantage in North American events. Rybakina was the Miami Open runner-up in 2023 and 2024 and will not go down quietly against Gauff if they cross paths for the first time in 2022. 

Also Read: Miami Open: Full list of title winners 

Final: Iga Swiatek / Jessica Pegula / Madison Keys

Gauff will enter the title round on the back foot should Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, or Madison Keys make the finals. Gauff, the World No. 3, trails all three players in their head-to-head contests. The trio have also made deeper runs than Gauff at the Miami Open.

In the case of Swiatek, she won the trophy in 2022 without dropping a set. The title run included a win over Gauff. The Pole has long been Gauff’s nemesis thanks to the 11-3 head-to-head advantage. Pegula, (4-2 against Gauff) made the last four in 2022 and 2023 and the last eight in 2024. Even Keys, who leads Gauff 3-2, made the quarter-finals in 2016. Gauff, in contrast, is yet to make it past the fourth round at the Miami Open.

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