Coco Gauff's projected path to Canadian Open 2025 final

Coco Gauff is a three-time quarter-finalist at the WTA 1000 event.

Coco Gauff readied herself for her French Open title run by reaching the finals at the two preceding WTA 1000 events at Madrid and Rome. In the French Open finals, Gauff denied World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka her maiden Roland Garros title. The American would like to transfer that momentum to the North American hard courts as the 2025 Canadian Open gets underway in Montreal. 

The reigning French Open champion and World No. 2 will be among the leading contenders in Canada as she looks to improve on her quarter-final performances at the venue. The 21-year-old will have to deal with heightened expectations following her French Open triumph.

Gauff will arrive in Canada armed with a vastly improved serve and greater mental resilience to boot. Gauff will have to navigate a tricky draw successfully if she is to add a third WTA 1000 trophy to her cabinet. Her road to the final might not be a minefield, but there are enough obstacles to throw her off course. 

Coco Gauff’s projected path-

Round 2 – Danielle Collins

Gauff’s campaign in Montreal begins with a maiden clash against fellow American Danielle Collins. The 31-year-old Collins recorded her best result at the 2023 edition when she reached the quarter-finals.

After her breakthrough run last season when she won titles in Miami and Charleston, she returned to the Top 15. However, after recording her season-high ranking of No. 11 in February, her ranking dropped to No. 63 after losing in the third round at Wimbledon to eventual champion Iga Swiatek. A semi-final run at Strasbourg in May is her lone bright spot this season.

Round 3 – Olga Danilovic

Gauff is seeded to clash with hard-hitting Serbian Olga Danilovic in what will be another maiden face-off for Gauff. Danilovic, 24, will be making her debut at the Canadian Open. Like Gauff, she will begin her campaign in round two after benefitting from an opening round bye. 

The No. 29 seed will have to find a way past either Veronika Kudermetova or Spanish qualifier Cristina Bucsa to move into the third round. Olga won the Guangzhou Open last season to end her six-year title drought. She ascended to her career-high ranking of No. 32 after Wimbledon, where she defeated China’s Shuai Zhang to record her first-ever win at SW19.

Round 4 – Diana Shnaider

Gauff shares a short history against Diana Shnaider on the WTA Tour. The American lost her only match to the Russian in Toronto last season. Gauff fell in the fourth round in straight sets to Shnaider. The American will be hoping to see a different sequence of events as the tournament is hosted this year by Montreal. 

Shnaider has seen her ranking slide from No. 11 in May to No. 17 currently. The 21-year-old Shnaider will be keen to recreate some of the magic that propelled her to the semi-finals of the Canadian Open in 2024. 

Quarter-finals – Jasmine Paolini / Ekaterina Alexandrova

Coco Gauff’s potential quarter-final rivals are likely to be either Jasmine Paolini or Ekaterina Alexandrova. In either eventuality, Gauff is well placed to take her competitors head-on. While she is evenly placed at 2-2 against Paolini, Gauff enjoys a  dominant 4-1 against Alexandrova, the only loss recorded in 2023 in Berlin. 

Gauff also defeated Alexandrova in their only hard-court meeting two years ago in Beijing. The American ended Alexandrova’s French Open campaign in the fourth round with a straight-set win.

The tale is flipped against Paolini, with the Italian winning both their matches in 2025. Paolini defeated Gauff in the finals at Rome, soon after her quarter-final victory against the World No. 2 in the semi-finals at Stuttgart. 

Semi-finals – Mirra Andreeva / Emma Navarro

A matchup against Mirra Andreeva will favour Gauff thanks to her unblemished 4-0 head-to-head record against the Russian. The second seed continued her dominance over the teenager, defeating Andreeva in Rome recently. Gauff has not lost a set to Andreeva since the 2023 French Open. 

On the other hand, against Emma Navarro, Gauff trails 2-1, but is deadlocked at 1-1 in their hard-court meetings.

If the two do face off, Navarro could have an edge given his victory over his compatriot at the 2024 US Open. The semi-final round will be the first time Gauff may be forced to prove her mettle just before a tough final.  

Finals – Iga Swiatek / Jessica Pegula

Either way Coco Gauff looks at it, the championship round will be no walk in the park for the American. Gauff is seeded to meet either newly minted Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek or two-time Canadian Open defending champion Jessica Pegula.

Both players have more wins than losses against her. Gauff trails 11-4 against Swiatek and 4-2 against Pegula. The good news for Gauff is that she has won three in a row against Swiatek and defeated Pegula the last time the two faced each other at the 2024 WTA Finals in Riyadh.

However, the momentum will be shared with her potential championship round opponents. That is something to be overcome if Gauff is to make a triumphant return to her home event in Cincinnati.   

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