Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini final prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Italian Open 2025

Paolini looks to become the first local player to win the Italian Open after 40 years.

After a slow start to the season, Coco Gauff has found her form at the right time, advancing to a second straight final. Having displaced Iga Swiatek to claim the World No #2 position, the American looks to win her first title of the season.

The job at hand will be challenging to say the least, as Gauff comes up against both Jasmine Paolini and the Italian crowd. Not often is the 21-year-old the second crowd favourite on court, but the local crowd is expected to turn up in massive numbers to cheer for Paolini, who hopes to become the first Italian to win the event since Raffaella Reggi in 1985.

Match details

• Tournament: Italian Open 2025
• Round: Final
• Date: May 17
• Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Similar to her Madrid outing, Gauff dropped her very first set in the initial round but went on to defeat some prominent names including Emma Raducanu in the fourth round and Mirra Andreeva in the quarter-finals.

The American looked off-colour in her clash against Qinwen Zheng, as both players were broken on multiple instances and scored plenty of unforced errors. In an intense nerve-wrecking contest, Gauff prevailed in three sets involving two tiebreak victories.

Paolini too has had her share of stunning comebacks, mainly against Diana Shnaider in the quarters, where prior to the rain break the Italian seemed to be on the doortsep of elimination, having lost a set and was down 1-4 in the second set. She repeated her heroics in the semis, staging a turnaround from 1-4 down to triumphing in straight sets.

Like Gauff, Paolini also had a slow start to the season in singles but has since found her form, reaching the semi-finals in three of her last four tournaments. Remarkably, the 29-year-old has also qualified for the doubles final alongside partner Sara Errani. Interestingly, the Italian duo secured their place in the final by defeating Gauff and Alexander Eala in the women’s doubles showdown.

While Gauff leads this rivalry 2-1, Paolini defeated the American just a couple of months back in Stuttgart, potentially giving the Italian a slight psychological advantage.

Form

Coco Gauff: W-W-W-W-W

Jasmine Paolini: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

Matches: 3

Coco Gauff: 2

Jasmine Paolini: 1

Also Read: Italian Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Stats

Coco Gauff

• Gauff has a 24-7 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Gauff has an 20-5 win-loss record in Rome
• Gauff has a 73% win record on clay

Jasmine Paolini

• Paolini has a 21-8 win-loss record in 2025
• Paolini has a 7-5 win-loss record in Rome
• Paolini has a 52% win record on clay

Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Gauff -200, Paolini +175
• Spread: Gauff -3.5 (-112), Paolini +3.5 (-108)
• Total Games: Over 21.5 (-106), Under 21.5 (-115)

Match Prediction

Jasmine Paolini’s inspiring run at the Italian Open has taken her to both the singles and doubles finals, electrifying the home crowd. The 29-year-old has displayed tremendous grit with several comebacks, but if the final turns into a long battle, the demanding schedule could test her endurance and tip the scales.

Coco Gauff, riding a five-match win streak and now World No #2, showcased her resilience with a gritty three-set win over Zheng. While Paolini will have the crowd, Gauff’s clay-court edge, Rome experience, and big-match composure make her the favourite in what promises to be a tight three-set final.

Result: Coco Gauff to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini, women’s singles final match at Italian Open 2025?

Tennis Channel will broadcast the 2025 Italian Open quarter-final match between Coco Gauff and Jasmine Paolini in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will make the match available for viewing within the United Kingdom.

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