Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

Medvedev is a two-time finalist at Indian Wells.

A round of 16 battle between two top-10 ATP players is on the cards. The in-form Tommy Paul takes on two-time Indian Wells Open finalist Daniil Medvedev, who is desperate for a title. This clash coincidentally is a rematch of last year’s semi-final at this very venue, with Medvedev winning in three sets on that occasion.

However, a lot has changed since. Tommy Paul has made rapid strides and broken into the top-10 rankings, while Daniil Medvedev is currently going through a serious decline in form. Not often do you see two 6-foot tennis players fight it out, and hence this contest for a quarter-final berth promises to be an entertaining one.

Match details

• Tournament: Indian Wells Open 2025
• Stage: Fourth round
• Date: March 12 (Wednesday)
• Time: 7:30 AM IST Tentative Time
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California
• Surface: Hard Court (outdoor)

Preview

Tommy Paul defeated Cameron Norrie in the third round comfortably, while Medvedev enjoyed a lengthy break after his third round ended in just two games with his opponent withdrawing from the contest due to sickness. The Russian will be fresher, having spent less time on court.

The American though, would look to gain inspiration from his first and only victory over Medvedev out of the four times they have faced each other. Paul would be eager to avenge his defeat from last year’s semi-final but Medvedev’s excellent form at the desert promises this to be a thriller.

Also Read: Top five youngest men’s singles champions at Indian Wells Open

Form

• Daniil Medvedev: W-L-W-W-L
• Tommy Paul: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-Head

• Matches – 4
• Medvedev – 3
• Paul – 1

Stats

Daniil Medvedev

• Medvedev has 18-7 win-loss record in 2025 so far
• Medvedev has a 10-5 win-loss record at Indian Wells
• Medvedev was a finalist at Indian Wells 2024

Tommy Paul

• Paul has a 11-5 win-loss record in 2025 so far
• Paul has a 13-6 win-loss record at Indian Wells
• Paul was a semi-finalist at Indian Wells 2024

Also Read: Indian Wells Open: Full list of winners

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Medvedev -130, Paul +106
• Spread: Medvedev -1.5 (-105), Paul +1.5 (-122)
• Total Games: Over 12.5 (-112), Over 12.5 (+100)

Prediction

Both players have had a mixed start, with no long runs for either players at a tournament so far. On paper, the fifth seed Medvedev starts favourite but Paul has shown excellent growth over the past 12 months and will hope to produce a big result.

While Medvedev has occasionally faltered against lower-ranked players, his ability to elevate his game in pressure situations is second to none. With glimpses of his best form returning, a win over 10th seed Paul could be a significant step toward reviving Medvedev’s dominance. However, Paul’s growing confidence and hunger for a statement victory could make this a closely-fought encounter.

Result: Daniil Medvedev will win in three sets.

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Where and how to watch the live streaming and TV broadcast of Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul, fourth round match at Indian Wells Open 2025?

The Sony Network will cover the Indian Wells Open fourth round match between Medvedev and Paul in India, complemented by its streaming service, SonyLiv. Viewers in the United Kingdom can tune in to Sky UK for live coverage of the Indian Wells tournament. Tennis Channel and WTA TV offers live streaming of the ATP-1000 event within the United States.

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