Elena Rybakina vs Marta Kostyuk prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Canadian Open 2025

On paper, Elena Rybakina is certainly the favourite to win the match.

Elena Rybakina has reached yet another quarter-final in this North American swing, after her incredible win over 32nd seed Dayana Yastremska. The Kazakh broke first in the opening set, but was broken right after, as the Ukrainian had two set points at 5-4.

While Rybakina saved both on her serve, she was ultimately broken in her next serving game, dropping the set. She struggled with her serving, mainly due to the high number of double faults. Yastremska dropped her level in the second set, and Rybakina made her pay heavily.

In a match that turned into a marathon contest, the former Wimbledon champion eventually won in three sets to enter the last eight. She also became the first female player to hit 300 aces in the 2025 calendar year, cumulating a total of 26 aces in her first three rounds at Montreal.

Match details

• Tournament: Canadian Open 2025
• Round: Quarter-Final
• Date: August 5
• Venue: IGA Stadium, Jarry Park, Montreal, Canada
• Surface: Hard

Preview

Marta Kostyuk battled past McCartney Kessler in a dramatic fourth-round clash at the 2025 Canadian Open, prevailing 5-7, 6-3, 6-3 to reach her first quarterfinal at the event.

Facing swirling winds and a surging opponent, Kostyuk overcame a shaky serve early before turning the match with resilient all-court play, applying pressure and showcasing her trademark fighting spirit to secure a hard-fought comeback victory.

Kostyuk has had a mediocre season until this tournament. With plenty of ups and downs in the clay season, the Ukrainian suffered as many as six consecutive losses leading to the Canadian Open. Her latest loss came against Emma Raducanu in Washington. However, she snapped the losing streak with a terrific comeback win against Markéta Vondroušová in the second round at Montreal.

Kostyuk then took down Daria Kasatkina and finally Kessler, with each of these battles witnessing her comeback from a set down, highlighting her tremendous willpower and mentality. She faces Rybakina next, having last met in the 2024 Stuttgart final, where the Kazakh prevailed in straight sets.

Their other two exchanges came on both hard courts Grand Slams, with Rybakina emerging victorious in the US Open, while Kostyuk claimed the honors at Melbourne Park, in what proved to be her only win against Rybakina, in three sets.

Form

• Elena Rybakina: W-W-W-L-W
• Marta Kostyuk: W-W-W-L-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 3
• Rybakina: 2
• Kostyuk: 1

Stats

Elena Rybakina

• Rybakina has a 36-14 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Rybakina has a 20-8 win-loss record on hard courts this season
• Rybakina has won 67% of her career matches on hard courts

Marta Kostyuk

• Kostyuk has a 20-16 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Kostyuk has a 13-9 win-loss record on hard courts this season
• Kostyuk has won 64% of her career matches on hard courts

Elena Rybakina vs Marta Kostyuk: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Rybakina -350, Kostyuk +290
• Spread: Rybakina -4.5 (-110), Kostyuk +4.5 (-120)
• Total Games: Over 20.5 (-125), Under 21.5 (-125)
• 1st Set Moneyline: Rybakina -275, Kostyuk +220
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 8.5 (-275), Under 9.5 (-132)

Match prediction

It is difficult to predict the result, but on paper, Rybakina is certainly the favourite. However, the Kazakh’s main weapon is also her biggest weakness.

Her serve is a double-edged sword, and although she is one of the toughest WTA players to serve, her inconsistency and large number of double faults make her vulnerable under pressure.

The Kazakh has saved more break points than most, but Kostyuk is known to be relentless and never gives up quickly. Yastremska was unable to sustain her high level for the entire duration of three sets, but the 24th seed will not make the same mistakes.

A fit and firing Rybakina, having recovered well from her grueling fourth-round match, is an incredibly tough opponent to beat. However, the former World No. 3 has shown vulnerability in high-pressure, high-intensity matches on several occasions over the past 24 months, often conceding moments when she appeared to be in control.

Result: Kostyuk will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and streaming of Elena Rybakina vs Marta Kostyuk, women’s singles quarter-final match at the Canadian Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the 2025 Canadian Open quarter-final clash between Elena Rybakina and Marta Kostyuk on Discovery India. Sky Sports will broadcast the contest live in the United Kingdom. The Tennis Channel is the official broadcaster in the United States.

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