Iga Swiatek's projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Iga Swiatek is the reigning champion.

The defending champion, Iga Swiatek, faces a steep task with 1000 points to defend in the Madrid Open 2025. The World No. 2 won the title last year by defeating several strong players, including Sofia Cîrstea, Haddad Maia, Madison Keys, and Aryna Sabalenka.

With a disappointing quarter-final loss in Stuttgart, Swiatek would hope to finally end the drought and win her first title since Roland Garros 2024.

Round 1: Bye

Round 2: Alexandra Eala / Viktoriya Tomova

Iga Swiatek was recently defeated by Alexander Eala in Miami, as the Filipino tennis player enjoyed a dream run in Florida. However, on clay, the second seed is a different beast and is expected to emerge victorious comfortably.

Round 3: Linda Noskova / Rebecca Sramkova

Swiatek is expected to win this round easily too, no matter who the opponent is. The Pole enjoys a 5-1 head-to-head over Noskova, having beaten her recently in Doha. Sramkova suffered a crushing defeat against Swiatek at the Australian Open 2025, and hence, a place in the last 16 looks assured for the defending champion.

Round 4: Jelena Ostapenko / Diana Shnaider

After winning the Stuttgart Open, Jelena Ostapenko now eyes Madrid. For a seventh time, Swiatek could meet the Latvian on court. Ostapenko has already ended the Pole’s dream of winning in Qatar and Stuttgart, with a stunning 6-0 advantage on head-to-head.

The World No. 2 simply looks short of answers against Ostapenko, and must end this curse quickly. With chances of this one-sided rivalry surfacing yet again in Madrid, will Swiatek gets the better of Ostapenko remains to be seen.

If Ostapenko loses in her previous round, Diana Shnaider could be her next opponent, which would provide some relief to the five-time Grand Slam winner.

Quarter-final: Madison Keys / Emma Navarro

Swiatek could be given the chance to avenge her Australian Open defeat against Madison Keys. While the American has been dominant this season, clay isn’t her strength, and the second seed should prevail easily in this encounter. Emma Navarro could prove to be a tough opponent, but the 23-year-old should emerge victorious.

Semi-final: Coco Gauff / Mirra Andreeva

Given Coco Gauff‘s impressive record, Iga Swiatek could prove to be a tough opponent for her on clay courts. Swiatek has dominated her rivalry against Gauff in the past, but the American has triumphed in the duo’s last two meetings.

Mirra Andreeva could pose as a serious threat, with the Russian having already beaten Swiatek a few weeks back. With an all-game up her sleeve, Andreeva has the potential to stir an upset, making this contest truly a spectacle to watch.

Final: Aryna Sabalenka / Elena Rybakina

Swiatek vs Sabalenka, the clash between Number 1 and 2 has been on everyone’s bingo card. Fans haven’t witnessed the pair take on each other so far this year, and it is likely to stay the same, given the amount of competition on offer for both players. On paper, Swiatek seems to be the favorite, but players like Ostapenko and Andreeva will make it challenging for the Pole.

Aryna Sabalenka herself won’t find it easy, with clay specialists like Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini emerging as possible hurdles. Should this finale take place, it would be a match to remember, with the second seed starting as the favorite to retain her title and defeat the Belarusian.

Despite her recent dip in form and the off-court drama, writing off Elena Rybakina would be unwise. The Kazakh remains one of the cleanest ball strikers on tour, and her recent drop out of the WTA top 10 could serve as the wake-up call she needs to rediscover her best tennis.

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