Iga Swiatek's projected path to Miami Open 2025 final

Miami Open 2022 champion Swiatek will begin her campaign against Carolina Garcia.

The 2025 season has been all about missed chances for World No. 2 Iga Swiatek. By this time last year, the Pole had two titles in the bag – WTA 1000 trophies from Doha and Indian Wells Open. Fast-forward to 2025, and Swiatek failed to defend both victories with semi-final exits at both events. 

The Polish second seed has also drifted further away from reclaiming the WTA No. 1 position she lost to Aryna Sabalenka last October. This is an unusual position for the Pole. Swiatek last found herself without a title in the first three months of a season back in 2020. Her title drought extends back to the 2024 French Open. That was also her last appearance in a WTA event final. 

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Iga Swiatek’s victory in Miami Open in 2022 came close on the heels of an Indian Wells Open title run the same year. She became one of four women to complete the Sunshine Double – joining Stefanie Graf (1994 and 1996), Kim Clijsters (2005), and Victoria Azarenka (2016) on the list.

Swiatek found herself sharing the spot with Madison Keys, Karolina Muchova, Elise Mertens, and Paula Badosa. A possible quarter-final clash with Jelena Ostapenko could emerge, followed by an Indian Wells re-match with Mirra Andreeva.  

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Round 2: Caroline Garcia

Swiatek’s potential second-round opponent is former top-five player, Caroline Garcia. The Frenchwoman was a quarter-finalist in Miami last season but is yet to make an impression against Swiatek. Garcia trails the world number two by 5-1, she defeated Swiatek in Warsaw in 2022.

Swiatek scored a comfortable 6-2, 6-0 win over Garcia in the second round of Indian Wells. The unseeded Garcia last won a tour-level event at the 2022 WTA Finals held in Fort Worth. 

Round 3: Elise Mertens

Swiatek’s only face-off against Belgian player Elise Mertens ended with the Pole crossing the finish line as the winner. Their second-round clash in Germany saw Mertens vanquished with a 6-3, 6-4 scoreline.

The 29-year-old Mertens made the finals in Hobart in January before returning to the winner’s circle when she won the 2025 Singapore Open. The win at the WTA 250 was her first in two years, with the last coming in 2023 at Monastir.

Round 4: Karolina Muchova

Karolina Muchova has never been a hurdle for Iga Swiatek, as their head-to-head record also shows. Swiatek, who leads Muchova, 4-1, recently handed the Czech a 6-1, 6-1 defeat at the recently concluded Indian Wells Open. 

The comprehensive win emphasises a continued dominance over Muchova, who last defeated the Pole in 2019 in Prague. Affecting Muchova’s chances in Miami would be an injury-prone season that forced a withdrawal from Qatar.

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Quarter-finals: Madison Keys / Jelena Ostapenko

The quarterfinal round could be the first real test for Swiatek in Miami. A last-eight clash against Keys or Ostapenko could push the No. 2 seed for the first time during the fortnight. 

Swiatek has registered recent losses against Madison Keys and Jelena Ostapenko this season. The World No. 2 fell to Keys at the Australian Open semi-final across three sets. Swiatek’s straight-set loss to Ostapenko in the semi-finals at Doha, where she was the defending champion, preceded a quarter-final loss to Mirra Andreeva in Dubai. A second straight loss to Andreeva in the last four at Indian Wells followed has left Swiatek on the back foot at this stage of the season.

Semi-finals: Jessica Pegula /  Mirra Andreeva

Swiatek could face two of her old rivals, Jessica Pegula or Mirra Andreeva, if she reaches the semifinals. After losing against both the players, Swiatek will have to be cautious against them. 

The Pole would yet prefer taking on Pegula against whom she has a 6-4 lead despite the loss in New York last September. Swiatek fell behind Andreeva in their head-to-head 2-1 after back-to-back defeats in Dubai and Indian Wells. What would hurt Swiatek is the fact that she has been a consistent performer in the North American swing. 

Also Read: Miami Open: Full list of title winners 

Final: Aryna Sabalenka / Coco Gauff

Swiatek is seeded to meet Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff in the title round – and both players are dealing with early-season slumps of their own. However, Swiatek could fall back on her winning head-to-head should a title round appearance against Sabalenka or Gauff materialise. 

The Polish player leads 11-3 against Gauff and 8-4 against Sabalenka. Despite the dominant lead, Swiatek must keep in mind that both players have closed the gap against her. Gauff has two straight wins at the WTA Finals and the United Cup, while Sabalenka registered a win over Swiatek in their semi-final clash at the 2024 Cincinnati Open.

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