Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini final prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Cincinnati Open 2025

Swiatek has never dropped a set against Paolini so far.

World No. 3 Iga Swiatek triumphed over a ruthless Elena Rybakina to secure her maiden Cincinnati final berth, after falling agonisingly short in 2023 and 2024.

The Pole started with a strong hold, but there was relentless pressure exerted by Rybakina, who broke early and found herself serving for the opening set at 5-4.

The Kazakh seemed to be proving too good yet again, like she performed against Sabalenka in her previous round. However, the third seed made full use of a slight drop in concentration and rhythm to level the score. Swiatek went on to win both games, consequently, and took the first set via a staggering comeback.

Momentum then swung in favor of the Polish star, who broke Rybakina’s serve and held firm through several tense service games, saving break points along the way, before sealing a straight-sets victory in what was a high-quality contest of tennis

Match Details

• Tournament: Cincinnati Open 2025 
• Round: Final
• Date: August 19
• Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Centre, Cincinnati, United States
• Surface: Hard Court

Also Read: Cincinnati Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Preview

Jasmine Paolini defeated Veronika Kudermetova in three sets, despite serving for the match in the third set. While it got more complicated than needed in the end, the Italian confirmed her spot in a third WTA-1000 final.

Paolini has managed to find her way through, despite some unconvincing outings. Her big win against Coco Gauff featured a large number of unforced errors. But Jasmine’s 2-0 record in the Masters finals will give her confidence ahead of her first Cincinnati title match.

Swiatek has been ruthless against Paolini every time they have faced off, including the 2024 Roland Garros final. Their only meeting this year was on grass at Bad Homburg, which the six-time Grand Slam champion won without much trouble.

Form

• Iga Swiatek: W-W-W-W-L
• Jasmine Paolini: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Iga Swiatek: 4
• Jasmine Paolini: 0

Stats

Iga Swiatek

• Swiatek has a 49-12 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Swiatek has a 13-6 win-loss record in Cincinnati
• Swiatek has won 79% of the matches played on hard courts

Jasmine Paolini

• Paolini has a 32-13 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Paolini has a 12-5 win-loss record in Cincinnati
• Paolini has won 58% of the matches played on hard courts

Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Swiatek -500, Paolini +420
• Spread: Swiatek -4.5 (-130), Paolini +5.5 (-135)
• Total Games (Match): Over 19.5 (-130), Under 20.5 (-113)
• 1st Set Winner: Swiatek -345, Paolini +275
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 8.5 (-285), Under 9.5 (-136

Match prediction

Iga Swiatek has been playing some of the best hard-court tennis of her life, recently beating a peaking Rybakina to continue her stunning campaign in Cincinnati.

Having not dropped a set so far, the Pole has been dominant with her impressive serving and strong returns on both forehand and backhand.

Paolini has a less powerful second serve, which Swiatek can dominate. The third seed’s remarkable footwork and excellent record over the Italian make her the favourite for winning a maiden Cincinnati title.

Result: Iga Swiatek will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch the live telecast and streaming of Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini, final at the Cincinnati Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the 2025 Cincinnati Open final clash between Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini on WTA TV after buying a subscription.

Sky Sports will broadcast the contest live in the United Kingdom. The Tennis Channel is the official broadcaster in the United States.

Full worldwide broadcast details here.

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