Iga Swiatek's projected path to Indian Wells Open 2025 final

Iga Swiatek could potentially face Aryna Sabalenka or Madison Keys in the final.

Iga Swiatek, a two-time Indian Wells champion, is hunting for a record-third title which could make her the most successful female player in the history of the competition. The new season has been a case of so close yet so far for the Polish. After an unbeatable run at the United Cup 2025, Swiatek lost to Coco Gauff in the finals.

At the Australian Open 2025, the World No. #2 looked formidable and seemed to confirm a maiden final berth. However, Madison Keys saved a match point and stunned the Pole in a 10-point tie-breaker. At the Qatar Open, where Swiatek was a three-time consecutive champion, familiar rival Jelena Ostapenko defeated Swiatek comprehensively in straight sets.

Ahead of her title defence at Indian Wells Open 2025, the five-time Grand Slam champion will be hoping to get back to winning ways and break her knockout jinx, as she aims for her first title of the 2025 calendar year. Here we take a look at Swiatek’s projected path to Indian Wells Open final.

Iga Swiatek’s projected path to Indian Wells Open 2025 final

Round 1: Bye

Round 2: Caroline Garcia/Bernarda Pera

After an opening round bye, Swiatek could potentially contest Caroline Garcia in the second round. The Frenchwoman has been in poor form, with just one victory despite featuring in four tournaments. Bernarda Pera, the other possible opponent for the Pole has not won a single main draw match so far. From the duo’s track record, it is obvious that the two-time Indian Wells winner is going to cruise to the next round.

Also Read: Top 10 players to watch at Indian Wells Open 2025

Round 3: Ons Jabeur/Dayana Yastremska

Ons Jabeur has been inconsistent recently but can certainly test Iga Swiatek if she finds her rhythm. With a 5-2 head-to-head, the Pole would favour her chance but cannot take this contest lightly. She could also face 46th seed Dayana Yastremska in round three. The Ukrainian’s best stint this year came at the Linz Open where was a finalist. Coincidentally, her last appearance in Dubai was against Swiatek, who dominated the contest and triumphed in straight sets.

Round 4: Karolina Muchova/Yulia Putintseva

Should the rankings hold, here is when the challenge becomes harder for the reigning champion. An in-form Karolina Muchova, who looked threatening in Dubai could be set for another long campaign at the Tennis Paradise. Swiatek leads the h2h battle 3-1, but must be switched on if she wishes to keep her title defence alive.

Yulia Putintseva, is a familiar name for Swiatek, having beaten the then World No. #1 in Wimbledon. The Kazakh though hasn’t got going in 2025, with no solid performance so far.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in women’s singles at Indian Wells Open 2025

Quarter-final: Qinwen Zheng/Paula Badosa

Qinwen Zheng’s disastrous form has seen her slide out of the top five and could even lose her top-10 WTA position if she fails at the ATP-1000 event. The Chinese is desperate for form and a good campaign, and a win against a top seed like Swiatek will do her confidence a world of good.

The Olympic gold medalist proved to everyone that on her day she can defeat anyone anywhere, having emerged victorious over Swiatek on the iconic Roland Garros stadium.

Paula Badosa emerges as another strong candidate, after an excellent Australian Open 2025 where she beat Coco Gauff and pushed Aryna Sabalenka. However, question marks remain over her availability after Badosa forfeited her WTA Merida encounter midway during the quarter-final. 24th seed Marta Kostyuk and 31st seed Linda Noskova are other potential opponents for the quarter-final round.

Semi-final: Elena Rybakina/Mirra Andreeva

Looking to break her semi-final jinx, Iga Swiatek could face 2023 BNP Paribas Open champion Elena Rybakina yet again. The Kazakh had squashed Swiatek’s hopes for a title defence, and the Pole would be eager to avenge her loss. This would not be an easy task though given Rybakina’s supreme Middle East record, and she too is due a title in 2025.

Youngest WTA-1000 champion Mirra Andreeva will be another threat for Swiatek. The Russian defeated both Rybakina and Swiatek in her path to glory at Dubai and emerges a title contender at the Tennis Paradise. Fourth seed Jessica Pegula recently won the ATX Open and has beaten Swiatek in the past, at the US Open.

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

Final: Aryna Sabalenka/Madison Keys

World No. #1 vs World No. #2 in the final, is a battle tennis fans have been craving for, and Indian Wells 2025 could finally be the stage for this spicy encounter. Sabalenka though has undergone a dip in form ever since her shocking Australian Open defeat. With an average Middle East record, the Belarusian would want to silence her critics with a maiden title at the desert.

Australian Open 2025 champion Madison Keys is set to make her much-anticipated return to the tour. After an outstanding campaign Down Under, the American will look to improve her record in California, where she has never reached the semi-finals before. Additionally, the tournament presents a crucial opportunity for Keys to strengthen her position in the WTA rankings, with a chance to achieve a career-high rankings of No. #4.

Third ranked Coco Gauff has not been in the conversations of title favourites, which could potentially see her make an incredible comeback. Recent form though suggests otherwise, as the American has failed to make a long-lasting impression since her United Cup triumph. American counterpart, Emma Navarro, who won the Merida Open, is another potential contender.

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